Reading MFIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MFIN free→Reading MFIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MFIN free→NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If MFIN cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.85 MFIN trades at 7× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $17 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 42% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.74x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.27 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.0% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$109.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$304.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,493.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This will show if Medallion Financial is struggling to grow its core business. A drop below 5% could signal ongoing issues.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported at 5% or higher year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MFIN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On June 11, 2026, Mr. Donald Poulton notified Medallion Financial Corp. and Medallion Bank of his intention to retire from his position as Chief Executive Officer of Medallion Bank, effective June 30, 2026. On June 11, 2026, the Board of Directors of Medallion Bank appointed Donald Poulton to serve as a member of its Board of Directors, effecti…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MFIN Medallion Financial Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | elevated |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | high |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustained growth in core business lines, particularly in the recreation segment.
Maintain EPS guidance with a focus on achieving $0.20 per share for the quarter.
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it could impact Medallion's performance. This is a key indicator of financial health.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: The new CEO might change company strategy. This could affect growth and operations.
Confirms one read:The new CEO announces a strategic plan that aligns with growth in core business lines.
Confirms the other:The new CEO delays or alters strategic plans, causing uncertainty.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS guidance shows the company is on track with its profit goals. A change could signal problems.
Confirms:EPS guidance remains at $0.20 per share for the quarter.
Disproves:EPS guidance is lowered below $0.20 per share.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Medallion Financial Corp. (the “Company”), issued a press release to the news media announcing, among other things, the Company’s results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in the press release is being furnished, not filed, pursuant to
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 28, 2026, Medallion Financial Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Note Purchase Agreement (the “Note Purchase Agreement”) with affiliates of JP Morgan Investment Management Inc. and certain other institutional investors relating to the private placement of $75.0 million aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 8.25% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”). Closing of the issuance and sale of the Notes occurred on Ap…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. Reference is made to the disclosure set forth under
Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. A portion of Medallion Financial Corp.'s consolidated borrowings ($73.5 million, or approximately 3%, as of March 31, 2026) are through debenture financing provided by the Small Business Administration (the “SBA”) to our subsidiary Medallion Capital, Inc. (“Medallion Capital”). These SBA debentures provide us access to long-term borrowings (typically 10 years) a…