Reading MDRR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MDRR free→Reading MDRR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MDRR free→NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers that are above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 84% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 MDRR trades at 3× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $71 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 84% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
27 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$77.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$528.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,817.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MDRR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT On June 8, 2026, (the “Effective Date”), Medalist Diversified, Inc. a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement (the “Agreement”), a copy of which is filed as Exhibit 10.1 hereto, with 14939 Metcalf Ave., LLC, a Texas limited liability company (the “Seller”), whereby the Company agreed to acquire (the “Acquisition”) a property located at 14939 Metcalf Avenue, Overland Park, Kansas, consisting of approximately 1.…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MDRR MEDALIST DIVERSIFIED REIT INC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to expand the portfolio through strategic acquisitions.
Continue to provide quarterly dividends to shareholders.
Improve financial flexibility through credit agreements and asset management.
Other Events. Own Digital Treasury TRS, LLC (“OWN”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Medalist Diversified, Inc. (“Medalist” and together with OWN, the “Company”), has entered into a Pledged Asset Line Agreement (the “PAL Agreement”) by and between OWN and Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (“Schwab”). The PAL Agreement provides for a revolving, non-purpose margin credit facility, secured by a first-priority lien on a designated brokerage account maintained at Schwab (the “Collateral Account”), of an amo…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously disclosed in the Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by Medalist Diversified, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”) on February 4, 2026, on February 3, 2026, MDR Franklin Square, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Seller”), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement (the “Agreement”), with PC Acquisitions, LLC, a North Carolina limited liabil…
Other Events On April 1, 2026, the Company issued a press release, a copy of which is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated herein by reference, whereby the Board of Directors (the “Board”) has authorized and the Company has declared a quarterly dividend on its common stock (the “Common Stock”) in the amount of $0.0675 per share (the “Dividend”). The Dividend will be payable in cash on April 21, 2026 to holders of record of the Common Stock as of Apri…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 5, 2026, (the “Effective Date”), MDR Ashley Plaza, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Seller”), entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement (the “Purchase and Sale Agreement”), with HPX Goldsboro Ashley Center LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Purchaser”), whereby the Purchaser agreed to acquire (the “Acquisition”) a 156,012 square foot retail property located at 201–221 North Berkeley Boulevard in Goldsboro, Nor…