Reading LPRO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LPRO free→Reading LPRO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LPRO free→NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 181% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.10, LPRO's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 39× p/e (3.6× the 11× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~190% near-term growth vs our ~-18% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.72 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 190% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.02x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.04 → $0.03 (-44.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$286.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$620.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,455.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More certified loans are important for Open Lending's future money and profits.
Confirms:Total certified loans increase by more than 5% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Total certified loans decrease or grow less than 0% compared to Q1.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LPRO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Agreement and Plan of Merger On June 15, 2026, Open Lending Corporation, a Delaware corporation (the “Company” or “Open Lending”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with ANV Group Holdings Ltd. a private limited company incorporated under the laws of England and Wales (“Parent”), and Lakers Acquisition Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“Merger Sub”). Pursuant to the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LPRO Open Lending Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 1 of 100 | expensive | high |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | elevated |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing the number of total certified loans for upcoming quarters.
Aim to achieve an Adjusted EBITDA between $25 to $29 million for the full year 2026.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support business growth.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for Open Lending.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median of 15%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above or at the median of 15%.
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing. Additional Information and Where to Find It The Offer has not yet commenced. This Current…
director — William Dabbs Cavin: Mr. Cavin resigned his position as a director of the Company.
and in the accompanying Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing. I tem 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d) Exhibits 99.1 Earnings Release…
and in the accompanying Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing. I tem 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d) Exhibits 99.1 Earnings Release…