Reading JBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JBI free→Reading JBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JBI free→NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 57% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key industrial bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.28 JBI trades at 17× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 53% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.16. 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$197.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$380.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,562.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Key reports on retail sales and FOMC decisions could impact market sentiment.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline or growth below 0%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for JBI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Janus International Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended April 4, 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). The full text of the Earnings Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is available on the investor relations section of the Company’s website at https://ir.janusintl.com. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JBI Janus International Group, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain the revenue guidance range of $940 million to $980 million for 2026.
Maintain the Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $165 million to $185 million for 2026.
Increase cash generated from operating activities to support business operations.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal better times for Janus and its peers.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the industrials sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth in the industrials sector stays below 5% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointments to the Board of Directors On March 5, 2026, upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee (the “NCG Committee”), the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Janus International Group, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Paul Vasington and Jeannine Lane as directors on the Board, with Mr. Vasington serving as a mem…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 4, 2026, Janus International Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended January 3, 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). The full text of the Earnings Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is available on the investor relations section of the Company’s website at https://ir.janusintl.com. The information in this Item 2.02, inclu…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 2, 2026, Janus International Group, Inc. (the “Company”) completed a repricing pursuant to Amendment No. 8 (the “Repricing Amendment”) to that certain First Lien Credit and Guarantee Agreement (the “First Lien”), dated as of February 12, 2018, by and among Janus Intermediate, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“Janus Intermediate”), Janus International Group, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“Janus International…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above under