Reading IIIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IIIN free→Reading IIIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IIIN free→NYSEIndustrialsMetal FabricationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the company's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 IIIN trades at 13× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $37 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.84 → $0.45 (-47.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$145.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$343.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,610.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company wants to give cash to shareholders.
Confirms:The dividend is paid as scheduled without any cuts or changes.
Disproves:The company delays or cuts the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IIIN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On May 12, 2026, Insteel Industries Inc. issued a news release announcing that its Board of Directors has declared its regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.03 per share of common stock, payable on June 26, 2026, to shareholders of record as of June 12, 2026. A copy of this release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IIIN Insteel Industries, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | fair | elevated |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain capital expenditures up to $20 million for fiscal 2026.
Continue the regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.03 per share.
Emphasize disciplined pricing and operational efficiency to navigate market conditions.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability and trust in cash flow.
Confirms:Board confirms the quarterly dividend remains at $0.03 per share.
Disproves:The board cuts or stops the quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: Changes in selling prices will show how well the company manages costs. This is important as raw material prices rise.
Confirms one read:Average selling prices increase by more than 1.0% from Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Average selling prices drop or stay the same. This shows there is pricing pressure.
Why it matters: A rise in shipments will show that construction is picking up after winter weather issues.
Confirms:Shipments increase by more than 6.9% sequentially from Q1 2026.
Disproves:Shipments do not go up or down. This shows there are still ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Updates on capital spending will show how the company spends money to grow and improve.
Confirms:Capital spending for fiscal 2026 is confirmed to be $20 million or more.
Disproves:Capital spending drops below $20 million. This shows possible cutbacks.
Why it matters: Stable or lower raw material costs would improve profit margins and support earnings.
Confirms:Raw material costs decrease by more than 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Raw material costs increase by more than 5% compared to the previous quarter.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the related information in Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Other Events On February 10, 2026, Insteel Industries Inc. issued a news release announcing that its Board of Directors has declared its regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.03 per share of common stock, payable on March 27, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 13, 2026. A copy of this release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the related information in Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.