Reading HNNA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HNNA free→Reading HNNA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HNNA free→NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality and management track record are neutral. The capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, but HNNA trades above typical for its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.89 HNNA trades at 9× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 40% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -21.2% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$91.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$312.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,983.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect where money flows. This is important for Hennessy.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates at the June 17 meeting.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HNNA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K relating to the Redemption and the Notice are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation of an offer to sell any Notes and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation, or sale in any jurisdiction in which such offering, solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Such information is not a notice of redemption with respect to the Notes, and any redemption will be or has been made in accordance with the terms of the ind…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q2, 2024-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HNNA Hennessy Advisors Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to declare and pay consistent dividends to shareholders.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.14 in 2026-Q1 to $0.15 in 2026-Q2. This consistent dividend declaration aligns with management's stated priority of maintaining shareholder returns, showing a delivering trajectory.
“The Company declared a cash dividend of $0.15 per share.”
“The Company declared a cash dividend of $0.15 per share.”
Focus on growing earnings as evidenced by recent earnings beats.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income increased from $2,604,000 in 2026-Q1 to $2,610,000 in 2026-Q2. The company has consistently beaten earnings expectations, indicating a delivering trajectory on its earnings growth priority.
“The Company issued a press release announcing its financial results.”
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people are spending. This affects Hennessy's asset management.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: A drop below the median would signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase. This could impact Hennessy's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median of around 15%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains at or above its median.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Hennessy Advisors, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8‑K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Regulation FD Disclosure On May 6, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that it had declared a cash dividend of $0.15 per share on its common stock. The cash dividend is payable June 4, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 21, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8‑K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 5, 2026, Hennessy Advisors, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8‑K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Regulation FD Disclosure On February 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that it had declared a cash dividend of $0.15 per share on its common stock. The cash dividend is payable March 4, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on February 18, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8‑K and is incorporated by reference herein.
“The Company issued a press release announcing its financial results.”