Hennessy Advisors Inc (HNNA)

NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.18-0.20%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hennessy Advisors Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Annual ending 2027-09-30
Revenue	—	54.95M
EPS	—	2.13
Annual ending 2028-09-30
Revenue	—	43.37M
EPS	—	1.51

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend payout at $0.15 per share	Hennessy Advisors pays steady dividends near $0.15 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.15 next quarter	Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.15 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20260.15 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 25bbfd6e-fe41-4170-b3ad-664b94bf13f7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company declared consistent quarterly dividends of $0.15 per share in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2, maintaining an annualized yield near 6%. Dividend payouts have been stable and management continues to emphasize returning capital to shareholders through dividends, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow operating income to at least $2.61 million	Earnings grew slightly to $2.61 million in the last quarter.	Intact	operating income falls below $2.61 million next quarter	Operating income: $2.913M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.61 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20262,913,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 25bbfd6e-fe41-4170-b3ad-664b94bf13f7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Earnings per share held steady at $0.24 in 2026-Q1 and slightly increased to $0.25 in 2026-Q2, while net income rose modestly from $1.9 million to $2.0 million. Despite some quarterly fluctuations, management's focus on consistent profitability shows limited progress but remains a clear priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Limit revenue decline to no worse than -15% year over year	A supporting condition in Hennessy Advisors Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= -15% YoY.	Intact	revenue decline exceeds -15% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 4.17% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= -15% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20264.17184 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 25bbfd6e-fe41-4170-b3ad-664b94bf13f7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Monthly analyst history is unavailable.

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payout at $0.15 per shareDividend per share: $0.15 per share
Grow operating income to at least $2.61 millionOperating income: $2.913M
Limit revenue decline to no worse than -15% year over yearRevenue growth: 4.17%

Next proof point

Dec 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hennessy Advisors Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HNNA is a smaller financial company with a value-oriented, income component, but the evidence does not establish a durable growth profile. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is below its industry cohort, though it has not freshly broken.

What's priced into Hennessy Advisors Inc

HNNA is cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment labels expectations justified, with low fragility rather than a broad stack of valuation and execution risks. Valuation fell by 10.1 points in the recent period; the expectations-gap measure is slightly negative, but confidence in the valuation model is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results show limited progress: earnings per share edged up from $0.24 to $0.25 between the first and second quarters of 2026, while average assets under management recovered from a year-over-year decline to modest growth. Management has maintained quarterly dividends, but its stated priorities show mixed progress, and the company has missed across recent quarters, making the next report a key risk. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and a litigation filing in May adds to the risks.

What Hennessy Advisors Inc hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on whether earnings and assets under management can sustain growth, while management continues to deliver consistent dividends. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts would weigh on the thesis; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as BLK, BX, and KKR would support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, HNNA combines peer-relative cheapness and a consistent dividend with mixed execution, elevated risk, and a sector headwind. The thesis remains watchful and depends on clearer progress in earnings and assets under management. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.