Reading HLNE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLNE free→Reading HLNE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLNE free→NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, HLNE is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $87.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for HLNE right now, so treat our $90 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $102–$179. Not investment advice.
(median $148.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-22
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.71x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.38 → $1.45 (+5.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 59.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$225.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$420.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,083.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An 11% increase in the dividend shows strong cash flow and management confidence. This can attract more investors.
Confirms:A formal announcement of an 11% increase in the full-year dividend.
Disproves:No increase in the dividend or a smaller increase than 11%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Launch of tokenized fund aligns with growth objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
as if fully set forth herein. The information included in, or furnished with, this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HLNE Hamilton Lane | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Hamilton Lane aims to increase its full-year dividend by 11% from the prior fiscal year.
Hamilton Lane is focused on increasing its net income over the fiscal periods.
Hamilton Lane is committed to increasing its operating income.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good management. It also shows healthy demand for services.
Confirms:Q1 2026 net income grows over 30% year over year.
Disproves:Q1 2026 net income growth is less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend shows confidence in cash flow and growth. It also reflects management's commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Confirms:The company declares a dividend of $0.60 per share as announced on May 21, 2026.
Disproves:The company does not declare the dividend or lowers the amount.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend increase shows strong cash flow. It also shows management's confidence.
Confirms:Dividend paid on July 7, 2026, is confirmed at $0.60 per share.
Disproves:Dividend is not paid or is lower than $0.60 per share.
Why it matters: More assets under management show strong client demand. It also means good fundraising.
Confirms:Assets under management are $142 billion as of March 31, 2026.
Disproves:Assets under management fall below $140 billion. This could mean possible problems.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is important. It helps us see how the company is doing.
Confirms:Total revenues for Q1 2026 are above $193 million.
Disproves:Total revenues are below $190 million. This may show problems with growth.
Why it matters: Increasing net income shows the company is growing and managing costs well. It can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Net income reported grows year over year in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Net income reported is flat or declines year over year.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better control of costs and earnings. This can boost stock performance.
Confirms:Operating income reported grows year over year in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Operating income is flat or goes down compared to last year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for Hamilton Lane.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Higher management fees mean strong client demand. They also show effective asset management.
Confirms:Management and advisory fees grow over 20% year over year in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Management and advisory fees grow less than 10% year over year in Q1 2026.
Strong growth in AUM supports income objectives.
Buyback authorization aligns with capital allocation goals.
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on November 6, 2018, Hamilton Lane Incorporated (the “Company”) announced that the Company’s board of directors authorized a program to repurchase, in the aggregate, up to 6% of the outstanding shares of the Company’s Class A common stock as of the date of the authorization, not to exceed $50 million (the “Stock Repurchase Program”). The Company’s board of directors periodically reviews the Stock Repurchase Program and most recently re-approved it in Dec…
as if fully set forth herein. The information included in, or furnished with, this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 1, 2025, Hamilton Lane Advisors, L.L.C. (“ HLA ”), the operating subsidiary of Hamilton Lane Incorporated, entered into a Second Amendment to the Multi-Draw Term Loan and Security Agreement (the “ Second Amendment ”) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (“ JPM ”), amending the Multi-Draw Term Loan and Security Agreement, dated as of October 20, 2022, between JPM and HLA (as previously amended, the “ 2022 Term Loan Agreement ”). The 2022 Term Lo…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included in