Hamilton Lane (HLNE)

NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-23

$82.27-3.56%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hamilton Lane’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	231.03M
EPS	—	1.768
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	969.53M
EPS	—	7.407
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	1.06B
EPS	—	7.404

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Full-year dividend increases by 11% to $2.40	A supporting condition in Hamilton Lane's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.40 full-year dividend.	Intact	Dividend increase falls short of 11% or below $2.40 in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of the supplied transcript quarters. The company reported a target full-year dividend of $2.40 for fiscal 2027; the supplied financials do not report dividend payments, so delivery against the full-year target cannot be verified here. The commitment is recurring, with limited evidence of completion in this bundle. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net income increases to at least $66 million in 2026-Q4	Net income rose to $66 million in 2026-Q4.	Intact	Net income falls below $66 million in 2026-Q4	Net income: $80.461M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $66.17 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202680,461,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 392dacc0-6dca-4366-81a6-60c81d088217. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income rises to at least $130 million in 2026-Q4	Net income rose to $66 million in 2026-Q4.	Intact	Operating income falls below $130 million in 2026-Q4	Operating income: $126.471M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $129.84 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 2026126,471,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of about 21% per year	Hamilton Lane grows revenue about 21% a year.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below ~20.9% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.06B

Unavailable → $1.06B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	$7.36	$1,051,042,880	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$7.36	$1,051,042,880	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$7.36	$1,051,042,880	5 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-30	$7.36	$1,051,042,880	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$7.36	$1,051,042,880	5 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$7.36	$1,051,042,880	5 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	$7.36	$1,051,042,880	5 / 5
2026-08-06	$7.36	$1,051,042,880	5 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$7.38	$1,063,022,970	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$7.38	$1,063,022,970	5 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,059,063,409	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,059,063,409	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,059,063,409	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	1
2026-06-01	6	1
2026-07-01	6	1
2026-08-01	6	1
2026-09-01	6	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 16 · prior Jul 21

$123.00 → $118.00-4.1%

UBSOct 13 · prior Aug 5

$131.00 → $115.00-12.2%

Goldman SachsOct 2 · prior Jun 30

$128.00 → $117.00-8.6%

Wells FargoOct 1

$103.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$72.05$144.10

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Full-year dividend increases by 11% to $2.40Required source inputs unavailable
Net income increases to at least $66 million in 2026-Q4Net income: $80.461M
Operating income rises to at least $130 million in 2026-Q4Operating income: $126.471M
Revenue growth of about 21% per yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hamilton Lane outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented financial business, with recent results supporting the thesis that it can expand earnings through client-driven investment solutions. The long-term thesis is intact, while confidence is medium because risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into Hamilton Lane

The evidence labels expectations as justified, with low fragility, meaning it does not flag an unusually vulnerable setup. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot does not explain its scale or translate it into a clear cheap, fair, or expensive comparison with peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term fundamentals have been strong: the latest results report Fee Related Earnings up 49% year over year, alongside higher revenue and growth in fee-earning assets. Management priorities appear on track, but a CEO transition is recent, and the company has a history of a deep earnings miss in a high-miss-rate industry.

What Hamilton Lane hinges on

The next call is an important near-term test: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Rate cuts are another sector risk, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from bellwethers such as BLK, BX, and KKR would support the sector backdrop.