Reading HLIT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLIT free→Reading HLIT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLIT free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with HLIT performing above typical compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 HLIT trades at 29× p/e, below its 39× p/e peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $14–$18. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, ahead of our forecast of about -22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.12 → $0.17 (+40.3% / 30d). 6 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$157.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$501.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,244.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show financial health. They will also show operational progress.
Confirms one read:Earnings results show revenue growth above the median for the sector.
Confirms the other:Earnings results show revenue growth below the median for the sector.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HLIT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, Harmonic Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release regarding its preliminary unaudited financial results for the quarter ended April 3, 2026. In the press release, Harmonic also announced that it would be holding a conference call on May 11, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the quarter ended April 3, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, and the information in Exhibit 99.1 is incorpor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$14.00 – $18.00 (median $15.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Communications Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HLIT Harmonic Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSCO Cisco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
ANET Arista Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LITE Lumentum | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSI Motorola Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Enhance cash flow from operating activities to support business operations and growth.
Complete the sale of the Video Business to Leone Media Inc. to focus on core operations.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports growth and reduces reliance on external financing.
Confirms:Cash from operations is over $10 million for Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations falls below $5 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Closing the sale will provide cash and help focus on core operations. It may also impact future profitability.
Confirms:The sale closes by June 8, 2026, without any delays.
Disproves:The sale does not close by June 8, 2026, or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand and future earnings. It shows customer trust in Harmonic.
Confirms:Backlog increases to over $582 million in Q2.
Disproves:Backlog decreases or fails to grow from $582 million in Q2.
Why it matters: More backlog growth shows strong future revenue and demand.
Confirms:Backlog reported above $582 million in Q2.
Disproves:Backlog reported below $582 million in Q2.
Why it matters: This sale is a key priority for Harmonic. It could improve cash flow and focus on core operations.
Confirms:The sale is complete. The money has been received.
Disproves:The sale announcement is late or not happening.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control and efficiency. This can boost investor trust.
Confirms:Operating income for Q2 is over $18 million.
Disproves:Operating income for Q2 is under $18 million.
Why it matters: This sale is important for Harmonic. It helps them streamline operations and focus better.
Confirms:A press release says the sale is finalized. The transaction is now complete.
Disproves:There could be delays in the sale process. The transaction might be canceled.
Why it matters: Guidance will show if the company can maintain momentum after strong Q1 growth. It reflects management's confidence.
Confirms one read:Guidance for Q2 Broadband revenue is set between $115 million and $125 million.
Confirms the other:Guidance falls below $115 million for Q2 Broadband revenue.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory. (e) Compensatory On May 6, 2026, the Compensation Committee approved a new transaction success incentive plan (the “Incentive Plan”) for Neven Haltmayer, the Company’s Senior Vice President and General Manager, Video Business, in connection with the pending sale of the Company’s Video Business to Leone Media Inc. (d/b/a MediaKind) (the “Transaction”). The Incentive Plan supersedes…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers. On March 31, 2026, Dan Whalen notified Harmonic Inc. of his resignation from Harmonic’s Board of Directors (the "Board"), effective March 31, 2026, due to potential conflicts of interest that may arise from his acceptance of a new role at another company. Mr. Whalen’s resignation was not the result of any disagreement with Harmonic on any matter rel…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously announced, on December 8, 2025, Harmonic Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Put Option Agreement (the “Put Option Agreement”) between the Company and Leone Media Inc. (d/b/a MediaKind) (the “Buyer”). Pursuant to the Put Option Agreement, the Company had the right (the “Put Option”) to require the Buyer to purchase the Company’s Video Business (the “Business”) for a purchase price of $145 million in cash, which Put Option may be exerci…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, Harmonic Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release regarding its preliminary unaudited financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. In the press release, Harmonic also announced that it would be holding a conference call on February 19, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, and the inf…