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NOKIA CORP (NOK)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-07-07
$11.84-5.36%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
The bottom line
Nokia's growth in AI infrastructure must continue to justify its current price. Revenue growth is expected to rise 14% in 2026, supported by strong partnerships. It trades at a low confidence valuation, with peer multiples implying a price about 21% above where it trades. The risk lies in the lack of recent financial performance history, which makes the thesis insufficient. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-07
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Market cap
- $69.84B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2002-05-21
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
The thesis
(what has to stay true — and what would break it)The thesis
The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.
Secular growthWatch
The bull case
Nokia is growing its AI and optical networking business with strong partnerships. It invests $30M in chip facilities, aiming to boost revenue. Nvidia and Amazon partnerships show confidence in its tech. Analysts see margin expansion and AI as growth drivers.
The bear case
The recent sharp selloff shows market doubts. Analyst downgrades question AI benefits. Revenue growth estimates are weak and revisions are mostly down. The company faces tough competition and execution risks.
What's priced in
The stock trades about 21% below our valuation level near $15, aligned with the Street median. The market expects modest or negative growth over the next 3 to 5 years, reflecting uncertainty about Nokia's growth prospects.
What has to stay true
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.84. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$15.00
Range $15.00 – $15.00
vs price: -21% below
Method agreement : high · 1 method
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for NOK right now, so treat our $15 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts target $13–$20. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-21%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$15.00
range $15.00 – $15.00
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
(median $15.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-07.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish5 analysts, 73% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.09 → $0.09 (+1.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in growth, with decelerating (~2.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme AI/accelerated-compute.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-07
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$283.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$520.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,973.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-07
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Analysts are more positive about Nokia's valuation. The company is gaining attention for its focus on AI networking. Partnerships with Nvidia and Amazon enhance Nokia's market position.
as of 2026-07-07
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 18d
Watch for GDP growth revisions on June 25
Why it matters: Changes in GDP growth can affect market feelings and Nokia's business outlook.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:GDP growth is revised upward to above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is revised downward to below 1% for Q1 2026.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-07-0719h agoThe Wall Street Journal
Nokia's involvement in AI data centers aligns with growth opportunities.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for NOK and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, MSI, and CIEN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting NOK and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If NOK beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +10% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, MSI, and CIEN start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping NOK and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits NOK and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.