Multi-year structural phase read for the Information Technology sector. Distinct from regime (60–90d momentum) and AI cycle quadrant (shorter horizon).
Where the sector stands today (current structural phase). The epoch timeline below is a different lens — the historical growth arc — so its most recent stage can read differently.
Information Technology has been in a maturing phase for under a year. Growth is slowing as the sector settles into maturity. Lately the trend has been easing. A key driver is 3-year revenue growth, near 4 percent. Watch for one change: revenue growth re-accelerates back toward its highs.
v1 classifier · Matches hand-labeled sector history within one phase ~94% of the time (phases sit on a continuum, so an exact-label match is a stricter test). Phase is a multi-year structural read, distinct from sector regime (medium-term momentum) and AI cycle quadrant (shorter horizon). These can disagree, and that's normal.
Data-drawn growth epochs since 2015, sized by duration and colored by growth-based stage. The most recent epoch is ongoing. This is the historical growth arc — a different lens from the current structural phase above, so the latest epoch's stage can differ from the lifecycle read.
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for the IT sector's health. A drop below median signals trouble.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth stays above median for two consecutive quarters.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth drops below median for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions change interest rates. This affects tech investment and spending.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates, leading to reduced investment in tech.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates steady or lowers them, boosting tech investment.
