Reading VSAT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VSAT free→Reading VSAT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VSAT free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the capital stance is capital-friendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, although compared with sector peers, VSAT trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $65.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $66 the market pays 64× p/e — above the 39× p/e peer median but in line with its own 68× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $70 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $49–$100. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -46.64x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.10 (-45.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.1% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$305.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$665.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,906.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This revenue number will show if Viasat's growth is slowing after buying Inmarsat.
Confirms:Q4 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q4 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VSAT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 28, 2026, Viasat, Inc. released its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 in a letter to shareholders that is available on the investor relations section of its website. A copy of the press release announcing the release of financial results is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and a copy of the letter to shareholders is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.2. The information contained herein and in the accompanying ex…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$49.00 – $100.00 (median $90.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Communications Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VSAT Viasat, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 21 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CSCO Cisco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
ANET Arista Networks | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LITE Lumentum | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSI Motorola Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on strategic mergers and acquisitions to drive revenue growth.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Adhere to capital expenditure guidance to ensure financial stability.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company is managing costs better. It shows they are running the business well.
Confirms:Operating income for Q4 increases year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same compared to last year.
Why it matters: New M&A deals could boost revenue and align with management's growth goals.
Confirms:A press release says an acquisition is done. It may add over $50M in yearly revenue.
Disproves:No new M&A announcements or failed negotiations in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A successful service launch could help Viasat make more money and gain market share.
Confirms:Management says the ViaSat-3 constellation will launch on time.
Disproves:There are delays in launching the ViaSat-3 constellation.
Why it matters: Updates may show plans that affect Viasat's growth and value for shareholders.
Confirms one read:Carronade Capital shares a new plan or partnership with Viasat.
Confirms the other:No new announcements or progress on the deal with Carronade Capital.
Why it matters: Growth trends in the sector affect Viasat's performance and its place in the market.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth remains above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth drops below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Being careful with spending helps keep finances healthy and supports growth.
Confirms:Management says spending is under $100M for the fiscal year.
Disproves:Spending goes over $120M, which may mean overspending.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Viasat, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Shekar Ayyar to serve as an independent Class II director with an initial term expiring at the Company’s 2028 annual meeting of stockholders and Jinhy Yoon as an independent Class I director, with an initial term expiring at the Company’s 2027 annual meet…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Viasat, Inc. released its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 in a letter to shareholders that is available on the investor relations section of its website. A copy of the press release announcing the release of financial results is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and a copy of the letter to shareholders is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.2. The information contained herein and in the accompanying…