Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$61.47+4.19%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Viasat, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.23B
EPS	—	-0.443
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	4.85B
EPS	—	-1.42
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	5.07B
EPS	—	-1.44

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditure near $975M	A supporting condition in Viasat, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Capex between $950M and $1B.	Intact	Capex exceeds $1.1B or falls below $900M in fiscal 2027	Capital expenditures: $218.928M FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Capex between $950M and $1B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026218,928,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Capital expenditure guidance decreased from approximately $1.2 billion in FY2026 to a range of $950 million to $1.0 billion for FY2027. Management is maintaining discipline on capex, showing progress in reducing planned spend. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Free cash flow of $180M	Free cash flow is guided at $180M for fiscal 2027, showing improving cash generation.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $100M in fiscal 2027	Free cash flow: $41.622M FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $180M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202641,622,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income near break-even	Viasat is improving its operating income, nearly breaking even with -$0.6M in 2026-Q4.	Intact	Operating income falls below -$153.8M in any quarter next year	Operating income: $47.308M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= -$0.6M. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202647,308,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 795e5b6e-f42c-4b59-a96f-4aee9053dbbe. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income fluctuated from a slight loss of $0.6M in 2026-Q4 to a positive $47.3M in 2027-Q1. Management targets flat to slightly up Adjusted EBITDA, showing mixed progress with some improvement in operating income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth via strategic M&A	A primary condition in Viasat, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.171B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.124B next year	Revenue: $1.157B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.171B. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20261,156,543,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 795e5b6e-f42c-4b59-a96f-4aee9053dbbe. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue ranged narrowly from $1.147B in 2025-Q4 to $1.157B in 2027-Q1, showing limited growth. Management emphasizes strategic M&A including Inmarsat integration to drive revenue growth, but revenue trajectory is currently stagnant. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$5.07B

$5.08B → $5.07B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$5,083,861,713	4 / 8
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$5,093,631,780	3 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$5,093,631,780	3 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$5,093,631,780	3 / 9
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$5,093,631,780	3 / 9
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$5,072,210,411	4 / 8
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$5,082,168,600	3 / 10
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$5,082,168,600	3 / 10
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$5,072,210,411	4 / 9
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$5,082,168,600	3 / 10
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$5,072,210,411	4 / 9
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$5,072,210,411	4 / 9
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$5,082,168,600	3 / 10
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$5,072,210,411	4 / 9
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$5,067,444,222	4 / 9
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$5,077,860,000	3 / 10
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$5,067,444,222	4 / 9
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$5,077,860,000	3 / 10
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$5,075,413,000	3 / 10
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$5,067,444,222	4 / 9
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$5,067,444,222	4 / 9
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$5,067,444,222	4 / 9
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$5,067,444,222	4 / 9
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$5,067,444,222	4 / 9
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$5,067,444,222	4 / 9
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$5,072,903,401	4 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	2
2026-06-01	8	2
2026-07-01	9	2
2026-08-01	9	2
2026-09-01	9	2
2026-10-01	9	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditure near $975MCapital expenditures: $218.928M
Free cash flow of $180MFree cash flow: $41.622M
Operating income near break-evenOperating income: $47.308M
Revenue growth via strategic M&ARevenue: $1.157B

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Viasat, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk, loss-making business with a thesis tied to execution and integration, rather than a proven earnings compounder. The thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and recent financial performance is neutral.

What's priced into Viasat, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to VSAT being cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap, but model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is labeled justified, and the evidence does not show concentrated fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings results are mixed: an earnings beat followed an earnings miss, and surprises have been erratic and trending down. Over the multi-year view, lower planned capital spending and management’s expectation of positive free cash flow are supportive, while revenue has remained nearly flat and strategic M&A, including Inmarsat integration, has yet to show clear growth.

What Viasat, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on whether integration and strategic M&A can turn stagnant revenue into sustained growth, while capital spending stays disciplined and free cash flow improves. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; lower interest rates or continued strong results from sector bellwethers could provide a favorable backdrop.