Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-09
$72.36-6.93%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Viasat is improving its operating income, nearly breaking even with -$0.6M in 2026-Q4. The company secured a major U.S. Space Force contract, which should boost revenue. Free cash flow is guided at $180M for fiscal 2027, showing improving cash generation. Capital spending is disciplined around $975M, supporting financial stability.
Viasat remains loss-making with a high PE of 96.3, well above peers at 71.5. Revenue growth is modest and uncertain, with no clear guidance and mixed M&A impact. Operating income is still negative and fragile, risking further losses if cost controls fail.
The market prices in about 5.5% revenue growth and values the stock slightly above our fair value near $80. Our fair value is 14% below the Street median, reflecting skepticism on durable profitability. We see risk in operating income and revenue growth execution.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $1.1B or falls below $900M in fiscal 2027
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $100M in fiscal 2027
Breaks if: Operating income falls below -$153.8M in any quarter next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently loss-making, but management is focused on increasing revenue through strategic mergers and acquisitions while maintaining capital expenditure discipline.
The market appears to price in a low expectations gap, suggesting that investors may not fully recognize the potential for recovery. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, but there is an unjustified aspect to the current pricing.
Management is on track to generate positive free cash flow, which could support future growth. However, recent financial performance has shown variability, and the company has faced challenges in maintaining momentum.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to execute on strategic M&A, potential changes in interest rates by the Fed, and the performance of sector bellwethers that could influence market sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company reaffirmed its guidance, which supports revenue growth expectations. However, a sharp drop in the stock price suggests the market may be repricing the thesis. This price movement indicates a potential reassessment of the reasons to own the stock.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Enhance operating income through operational improvements and cost management.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income fluctuated from a slight loss of $0.6M in 2026-Q4 to a positive $47.3M in 2027-Q1. Management targets flat to slightly up Adjusted EBITDA, showing mixed progress with some improvement in operating income.
“Adjusted EBITDA to be flat to up slightly YoY.”
“Adjusted EBITDA to be flat to up slightly YoY.”
“We continue to expect flat YoY Adjusted EBITDA.”
“We continue to expect flattish YoY Adjusted EBITDA.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.124B next year
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VSAT's performance will depend on its execution of strategic priorities and external market conditions. Not investment advice.