Reading IDCC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IDCC free→Reading IDCC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IDCC free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, suggesting favorable conditions for growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential cuts to guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like SAP and CRM, as these could significantly impact IDCC's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $288.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $289 IDCC trades at 21× p/e, below its 39× p/e peer median. Our $295 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.58x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.52 → $1.52 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 98.5% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$180.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$399.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,650.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
The valuation changed. It rose from "fair" to "full." Risk increased. The risk dimension is now elevated. The sector backdrop remains a tailwind.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A revenue miss could signal ongoing challenges in the smartphone licensing segment.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported below $139 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue reported above $143 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Injunction enhances InterDigital's legal position and revenue potential.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Communications Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IDCC InterDigital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | elevated |
CSCO Cisco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
ANET Arista Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LITE Lumentum | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSI Motorola Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to increase the dividend per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Focus on maintaining strong net income levels to support financial stability.
Enhance cash flow from operating activities to strengthen financial health.
Why it matters: This report will show if net income continues to decline. It is key for assessing financial health.
Confirms:Net income is below $75.3M. This shows a further decline.
Disproves:Net income is above $75.3M. This shows recovery.
Why it matters: Net income results will show if the company can keep making money during tough times.
Confirms:Q2 net income is reported below $10 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income exceeds $10 million.
Why it matters: Slowing ARR growth may show less demand for licensing agreements.
Confirms:ARR growth is below 10% from last year.
Disproves:ARR growth is above 13% from last year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may mean bigger problems for InterDigital.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median for the last year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend per share shows strong cash flow and management confidence.
Confirms:Management announces a dividend increase of at least 5% per share.
Disproves:No dividend increase is announced during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: New agreements may increase revenue and support the company's growth plan.
Confirms:At least two new licensing agreements are announced before Q2 earnings.
Disproves:No new licensing deals are announced before Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: Better cash from operations is key for funding growth and paying dividends.
Confirms:Operating cash flow increases by at least 15% year over year.
Disproves:Operating cash flow declines or stays flat year over year.
Why it matters: A lower net income margin may mean higher costs and less profit.
Confirms:Net income margin reported below 30%.
Disproves:Net income margin reported above 37%.
Why it matters: A stable or better net income margin means better cost management and more profit.
Confirms:Net income margin reported at or above 37% in future quarters.
Disproves:Net income margin falls below 37%, showing worsening profit.
Confirmed injunction boosts confidence in future licensing agreements.
The deal enhances IP monetization and supports growth objectives.
The deal enhances IP monetization and supports growth objectives.
Advances: Increase dividend per share
Dividend increase supports capital allocation objective.
New licensing agreement enhances revenue potential and aligns with growth objectives.
New agreement enhances revenue potential and aligns with growth objectives.
of this report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.