Lumentum (LITE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-30
$840.70-8.57%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put LITE beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Communications Equipment is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve EPS near $2.95 in Q2 2026: Diluted EPS: $-95.40 per share.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 69% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 5% on a typical day and fell roughly 43% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskLumentum’s AI and cloud optics growth case depends on continued rapid revenue expansion. Revenue growth accelerated from 65.5% to 90.0% year over year, with the latest quarter beating consensus. LITE trades at 33× sales versus a 3× peer median, while expectations look modest versus our view. The 33× multiple must be earned, despite the price reflecting less growth than we forecast. The specific thesis pressure is diluted EPS of -$95.40 against the Q2 2026 pillar near $2.95. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability at 16%. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. LITE is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 28 analysts currently covering LITE (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for LITE in the last 4 months.
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Compare LITE with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Communications Equipment — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put LITE next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Advance optical circuit switches (OCS) and co-packaged optics (CPO) growth driv…
Nvidia's scale-out supports Lumentum's OCS and CPO growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $840.70
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $840.70.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Advance optical circuit switches (OCS) and co-packaged optics (CPO) growth driv…
New OCI optics align with growth in optical circuit switches.
Advances: Achieve strong revenue growth driven by AI and cloud demand
Highlights Lumentum's role in AI data demand growth.
Advances: Achieve strong revenue growth driven by AI and cloud demand
AI demand positively impacts revenue growth outlook.
Advances: Achieve strong revenue growth driven by AI and cloud demand
AI demand boosts stock, aligning with revenue growth objective.
Threatens: Advance optical circuit switches (OCS) and co-packaged optics (CPO) growth driv…
Increased competition may hinder OCS and CPO growth.
Threatens: Advance optical circuit switches (OCS) and co-packaged optics (CPO) growth driv…
Optical shortage may hinder OCS and CPO growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve revenue growth
Long-term supplier agreement supports revenue growth objective.
