Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-15
$95.29-0.49%
Close 2026-09-15 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-15
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Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Communications Equipment is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Gross margin of 29%-30% in Q2 2026: 27.7% vs 29.0%-30.0% target.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 62% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 19%, softest on share dilution.
View QualityManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 6% on a typical day and fell roughly 66% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAAOI's growth depends on ramping production capacity for 800G and 1.6Tb products. Revenue grew 85% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations. It trades at 13× price-to-sales versus a peer median of 3×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than forecasted. A specific risk is the 24% probability of a miss in the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 39% above where it trades. This read is provisional; the thesis has broken due to a primary pillar being broken.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-15. AAOI is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 6 analysts currently covering AAOI (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Communications Equipment — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put AAOI next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Ramp production capacity for 800G and 1.6Tb products
U.S. ban on China could disrupt production capacity ramp.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-15. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Threatens: Return to non-GAAP profitability and positive net income
Equity offering may dilute shares and impact profitability goals.
Advances: Ramp production capacity for 800G and 1.6Tb products
AI demand supports production capacity ramp for 800G and 1.6Tb products.
Executive selling shares raises concerns.
Strong demand aligns with revenue growth objectives.
Big orders support revenue growth objectives.
Executive selling raises leadership concerns.
Executive selling raises leadership concerns.