Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$67.51-0.82%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$255M–$290M	—
Gross margin	29%–30.5%non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	427.26M
EPS	—	0.555
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.05B
EPS	—	0.74
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.96B
EPS	—	5.552

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin of 29%-30% in Q2 2026	Gross margin is targeted near 29.5%, showing margin improvement.	Broken	Gross margin falls below 29% in Q2 2026	Gross margin: 27.72% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 29%-30%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 202627.723242 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3c7d5214-25f6-41ac-942f-334df095cbbc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Leadership stability without significant insider selling	A supporting condition in Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material insider stock sales.	Under Pressure	Additional large insider stock sales occur	SVP sold $800.3k shares (2026-06-08) News reports a senior vice president sold $800,280 worth of shares on June 8, 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Non-GAAP net income between -$2.5M and $2.8M in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is -$2.5M to $2.8M.	Under Pressure	Net income remains below -$2.5M in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches $180M-$198M in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $180M-$198M.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $180M in Q2 2026	Revenue: $191.922M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $180M-$198M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 2026191,922,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3c7d5214-25f6-41ac-942f-334df095cbbc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$4.77 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-25	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-26	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-29	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-01	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-03	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-04	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	$4.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	$4.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-13	$4.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	3
2026-06-01	3	3
2026-07-01	3	3
2026-08-01	3	3
2026-09-01	3	3
2026-10-01	3	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin of 29%-30% in Q2 2026Published status: Broken
Leadership stability without significant insider sellingPublished status: Under Pressure
Non-GAAP net income between -$2.5M and $2.8M in Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue reaches $180M-$198M in Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

4.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-69.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk turnaround with growth optionality, meaning the expanding 800G and 1.6Tb business could support stronger results if execution continues. The thesis is in a watch state: capacity, revenue, and non-GAAP profitability are progressing, while recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

The valuation signal is slightly above peers, with a 3.38-point premium, while the expectations gap is modestly negative at -0.9. The snapshot labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, but model confidence is low; valuation has also fallen by 11.9 points recently.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s stated priorities are on track: capacity rose from nearly 100,000 units per month in Q1 to approaching 200,000 in Q2, while revenue grew 27% sequentially. Q3 guidance points to further revenue and non-GAAP profit growth, though the company remains loss-making on the broader earnings-quality measure and has a record of erratic earnings surprises. The recent acquisition and new financial obligation add uncertainty, and a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk.

What Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. hinges on

Over the next year, the thesis hinges on whether production capacity can keep scaling toward management’s year-end goal and convert into continued revenue growth and positive earnings. A guidance cut would weaken the execution case; continued stronger results from sector bellwethers or rate cuts could provide a more supportive backdrop, but those factors do not resolve company-specific execution risk.