Reading UI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UI free→
Ubiquiti Inc (UI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$557.78-2.95%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been steady, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, which is favorable for the company. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's performance. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Market cap
- $35.63B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2011-06-17
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-21
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $557.78. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$414.56consensus
Range $309.94 – $573.25
vs price: +35% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$251.37consensus
Range $251.37 – $251.37
vs price: +122% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $576 UI trades at 39× p/e, below its 39× p/e peer median. Our $426 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
39.0x
peer 39.2x · own history —
Premium
1.0x peer
Growth the price needs
35%
our forecast 24%
Our fair value
$425.70
range $295.71 – $578.40
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
full12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 35% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
76th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
17th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -10.0% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.48 → $4.03 (-10.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 18.8% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$223.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$481.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,852.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "expensive" to "full." Risk fell. Earnings quality remained fragile. Management stayed stable. Recent financial performance was strong.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth dropping below its median
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a slowdown in the sector's growth phase.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the sector.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for UI and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, NOK, and LITE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting UI and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If UI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-08), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If UI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-08), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, NOK, and LITE start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping UI and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-081mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Ubiquiti Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The Company hereby furnishes the information relating to its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 set forth in the press release issued on May 8, 2026 and which is incorporated herein by reference. This information…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.