Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
Lumentum (LITE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-15
$824.13-5.22%
Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
33.92 → 34.73 EPS · FY ending Jun 27, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflow4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage rising purchase obligations without margin erosion | A supporting condition in Lumentum's published investment case. The stated target is Purchase obligations growth contained to avoid margin decline. | Recovered | Purchase obligations growth causes operating margin to fall below 20% | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment thesis reflects a growth-oriented company that is currently experiencing strong financial performance. The thesis is intact, supported by robust revenue growth and margin expansion, but the valuation is considered expensive compared to peers.
The market seems to be pricing in high expectations for LITE, as indicated by its premium valuation compared to peers. The current valuation is stretched, suggesting that investors are anticipating continued strong performance and growth.
LITE's fundamentals are likely to continue benefiting from strong revenue growth driven by AI and cloud demand. However, there are risks, including the potential for management to cut guidance, which could negatively impact investor sentiment.
The future performance of LITE hinges on several factors, including the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of key sector peers like CSCO and MSI. Additionally, management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on their priorities will be crucial.
Overall, LITE's long-term thesis is supported by strong fundamentals but faces challenges due to high valuation and potential risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Lumentum's published investment case. The stated target is ~$2.95 EPS in Q2 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $2.15 in Q2 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $-95.40 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.95 EPS in Q2 2026. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q4. Source published Aug 17, 2026-95.4 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating margin near 35.5% in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Lumentum's published investment case. The stated target is ~35.5% operating margin in Q2 2026. | Under Pressure | Operating margin falls below 20% in Q2 2026 | Operating margin: 26.86% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~35.5% operating margin in Q2 2026. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q4. Source published Aug 17, 202626.860777 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near $808 million in Q3 2026 | A primary condition in Lumentum's published investment case. The stated target is >= $808 million revenue in Q3 2026. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $650 million in Q3 2026 | Revenue: $1.006B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $808 million revenue in Q3 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 17, 20261,006,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$29.53 → $34.73 · observed estimates
$8.77B → $9.87B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $33.26 | $9,455,678,378 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $33.26 | $9,455,678,378 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $33.26 | $9,455,678,378 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $33.26 | $9,455,678,378 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $33.26 | $9,455,678,378 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $33.26 | $9,455,678,378 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $33.23 | $9,473,917,416 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $33.23 | $9,473,917,416 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $33.23 | $9,473,917,416 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $33.23 | $9,473,917,416 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $33.23 | $9,473,917,416 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $33.23 | $9,473,917,416 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $33.32 | $9,500,959,444 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $33.64 | $9,532,142,091 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $34.08 | $9,615,784,139 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $34.08 | $9,615,784,139 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $34.12 | $9,662,172,300 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $34.12 | $9,662,172,300 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $34.12 | $9,662,172,300 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $34.12 | $9,662,172,300 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $34.49 | $9,741,559,800 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $34.49 | $9,778,149,691 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $34.49 | $9,778,147,935 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $34.49 | $9,778,147,935 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $34.40 | $9,795,198,652 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $34.40 | $9,795,198,652 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $34.40 | $9,795,198,652 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $34.40 | $9,795,198,652 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $34.63 | $9,837,600,074 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $34.63 | $9,837,600,074 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $34.73 | $9,872,078,335 | 10 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.