Harmonic Inc. (HLIT)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.05-0.40%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Harmonic Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.81 → 0.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2027-01-03
Revenue	—	132.22M
EPS	—	0.166
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	518.27M
EPS	—	0.713
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	572.71M
EPS	—	0.807

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income from broadband segment improves sustainably	A primary condition in Harmonic Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating income grows or remains above $20 million next 4 quarters.	Intact	operating income from broadband falls below $15 million next 4 quarters	Operating income: $23.631M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income grows or remains above $20 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 17, 202623,631,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income in Broadband rose from $3.8M in 2025-Q4 to $23.6M in 2026-Q2, reflecting improved profitability. Management has consistently emphasized increasing operating income, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Broadband revenue reaches about $485 million in FY26	A primary condition in Harmonic Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $475 million.	Intact	broadband revenue falls below $475 million in FY26	Broadband unavailable in the latest segment data Last available Broadband revenue: $75.806M in FY2023-Q3. Latest source period is FY2026-Q2; a broader segment cannot substitute for this measure. Source published Nov 3, 2023Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source Broadband · reported segment FY2023-Q3 · Period ending Sep 29, 2023 Source: stock_segment_revenue. Reference: 2023-Q3. Source status: vendor observation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Broadband revenue grew from $84.9M in 2025-Q1 to $133.5M in 2026-Q2, a 54% year-over-year increase. Backlog and deferred revenue rose from $344.2M to $587.6M over the same period. Management consistently emphasized broadband growth with DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber deployments, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Cash from operating activities remains positive and grows	A supporting condition in Harmonic Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is positive and stable or growing cash flow next 4 quarters.	Improving	cash from operations turns negative or declines significantly next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $-5.43M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: positive and stable or growing cash flow next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 17, 2026-5,430,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash and cash equivalents rose from $124.1M at 2025-Q4 to $231.9M at 2026-Q2, reflecting improved cash generation and proceeds from the Video business sale. Management's focus on cash flow is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin near 51.5% in FY26	A supporting condition in Harmonic Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~51.5%.	Intact	gross margin falls below 50% in FY26	Gross margin: 52.37% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~51.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 17, 202652.365467 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.81

Unavailable → $0.81 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.57B

Unavailable → $0.57B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-25	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-26	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-27	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-28	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-30	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-31	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-03	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-04	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-05	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-06	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-09	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	$0.78	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$572,707,233	4 / 5
2026-09-04	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$0.80	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$0.81	$572,707,233	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	2	1
2026-06-01	4	2	1
2026-07-01	4	2	1
2026-08-01	4	2	1
2026-09-01	4	2	1
2026-10-01	4	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income from broadband segment improves sustainablyOperating income: $23.631M
Broadband revenue reaches about $485 million in FY26Broadband unavailable in the latest segment data
Cash from operating activities remains positive and growsCash from operations: $-5.43M
Gross margin near 51.5% in FY26Gross margin: 52.37%

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Harmonic Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a smaller-cap growth and execution story, centered on virtualized broadband rather than the former Video Business. The long-term thesis is intact, with broadband growth and profitability improving, but the company remains loss-making overall and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Harmonic Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: HLIT is described as cheap versus peers, while a separate measure shows a 46% premium to peers. The model has low confidence, and its expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not clearly show how much future progress is already assumed.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s focus on broadband growth and operating income has shown results: broadband revenue and backlog rose, and Broadband operating income improved. The Video Business sale was completed, while the recent earnings beat and guidance raise support momentum; however, overall earnings quality remains weak because the company is still loss-making, and a guidance reversal would damage management credibility.

What Harmonic Inc. hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on continued broadband growth, successful DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber deployments, and further progress in profitability. A guidance cut after the recent raise is the main unfavorable scenario; rate cuts or continued strength from sector peers could provide a favorable backdrop, but neither is assured.