Reading GTY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GTY free→Reading GTY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GTY free→NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although GTY is performing above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 the market pays 21× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $32 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $33–$36. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.36 → $0.46 (+29.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$66.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$148.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $972.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings guidance shows Getty Realty will keep growing and staying stable.
Confirms:Q2 2026 earnings report confirms AFFO guidance of $2.50 to $2.52 per share.
Disproves:Q2 2026 earnings report shows AFFO below $2.50 per share.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GTY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. Such information in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$33.00 – $36.00 (median $34.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-14
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Retail REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GTY Getty Realty Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | full | moderate |
SPG Simon Property Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | low |
O Realty Income | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | low |
KIM Kimco Realty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | low |
REG Regency Centers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Commitment to maintaining consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows Getty Realty is confident in its cash flow. This can reassure investors.
Confirms:Dividend payment remains unchanged for the next quarter.
Disproves:Dividend payment is cut or suspended.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising guidance shows strong revenue growth. It also boosts investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 earnings guidance remains at or above $2.50 per share.
Disproves:Q2 earnings guidance is lowered below $2.50 per share.
Why it matters: A bigger pipeline shows growth potential. It shows a commitment to expanding the portfolio.
Confirms:The investment pipeline is more than $125 million for new properties.
Disproves:The investment pipeline is less than $100 million.
Why it matters: Steady rental income growth shows strong demand. It also shows effective management.
Confirms:Rental income growth remains above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Rental income growth drops below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower lease expirations reduce risk and support stable cash flow.
Confirms:Lease expirations are less than 2.5% of total annual base rent.
Disproves:Lease expirations are more than 5% of total annual base rent.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it shows Getty Realty is improving its business. This could attract more investors.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 7%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 7%.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows Getty is working to be more efficient. It means they are managing costs well.
Confirms:Operating income growth is over 40% year over year. This shows they manage costs strongly.
Disproves:Operating income growth is under 20% year over year. This suggests they may have inefficiencies.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend would show Getty's commitment to returning value to shareholders. It would also signal confidence in future cash flows.
Confirms:Dividend per share increases beyond $0.485, indicating strong cash flow.
Disproves:Dividend per share remains at $0.485 or decreases, suggesting cash flow issues.
Why it matters: Lease extensions help keep revenue steady and lower risk from tenant changes.
Confirms:They announced more lease extensions worth over $10 million in ABR.
Disproves:No lease extensions announced, or extensions totaling less than $5 million in ABR.
Entry into Material Definitive Agreement. On February 17, 2026, Getty Realty Corp. (the “ Company ”) entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with each of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC as the underwriters and, as applicable, the forward sellers (together, in such capacities, the “ Underwriters ” and the “ Forward Sellers , ” as applicable) and each of JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association and Wells Fargo Bank, National Associatio…
and Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. Such information in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference…
and Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. Such information in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference…