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Green Dot Corp. (GDOT)
NYSEFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$12.96+1.09%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, GDOT is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 55% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Market cap
- $726.64M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2010-02-26
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-10
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$8.34consensus
Range $8.14 – $27.33
vs price: +55% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$51.78consensus
Range $41.16 – $62.39
vs price: -75% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratingmedium confidence
At $13 GDOT trades at 18× p/e — 1.6× the 11× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $8.34 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
17.6x
peer 11.1x · own history —
Premium
1.6x peer
Growth the price needs
55%
our forecast 14%
Our fair value
$8.34
range $8.14 – $34.40
WhyValuation methods disagree
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 55% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
15th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -1.76x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral2 analysts, 33% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.40 → $0.39 (-2.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$327.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,095.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth dropping below median
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for the financial sector. A drop below median signals trouble.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of 15% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GDOT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting GDOT and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If GDOT reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2025-11-10), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on GDOT and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping GDOT and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits GDOT and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-161d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on November 23, 2025, Green Dot Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“Green Dot”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with CommerceOne Financial Corporation, an Alabama corporation (“CommerceOne”), Compass Sub North, Inc., a newly formed Delaware corporation and a direct, wholly owned subsidiary of CommerceOne (“New CommerceOne” or the “Combined Company”), Compass Sub East, Inc., a newly formed Delaware corporation and…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-6.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.