Reading GCTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GCTS free→Reading GCTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GCTS free→NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the capital stance is capital-friendly. Risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, though GCTS trades below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 35% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.60 GCTS trades at 25× p/s — 2.1× the 12× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $1.94 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 34% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.65x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.11 → $-0.07 (+33.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$226.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$756.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,377.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may signal broader challenges for GCT. This could impact its recovery efforts.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its historical median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still higher than its historical average.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GCTS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GCTS GCT Semiconductor Holding Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | full | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing 5G chipset shipments as commercialization ramps throughout the year.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue increased from $758,000 in 2025-Q4 to $1,920,000 in 2026-Q1, indicating some progress in 5G chipset shipments. However, the net income remains negative at -$9,864,000 in 2026-Q1, showing limited progress in achieving profitability.
“We expect sequential growth in 5G chipset shipments as commercialization ramps throughout the year.”
“we expect both sequential and year-over-year revenue growth to continue into Q1 of 2026 and beyond.”
“We expect operational efficiencies to improve as revenues increase after 5G product sales start contributing more significantly to our overall revenue commencing in Q1 2026.”
“GCT continues to target shipments of its 5G chipsets to begin in the fourth quarter of 2025.”
Improve operational efficiencies as revenues increase from 5G product sales.
Stated in 2 of last 4 quarters. Despite revenue growth from $758,000 in 2025-Q4 to $1,920,000 in 2026-Q1, operating income remains negative at -$6,132,000 in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in achieving operational efficiencies.
“We expect operational efficiencies to improve as revenues increase after 5G product sales start contributing more significantly.”
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of recovery from loss-making status.
Confirms:The earnings report shows that revenue is growing. The company is becoming profitable.
Disproves:Earnings report shows continued losses and no revenue growth.
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 24, 2026, GCT Semiconductor, Inc., a subsidiary of GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into Amendment No. 1 (the “Amendment”) to that certain Convertible Promissory Note, dated February 26, 2024 (the “Original Note” and, as amended by the Amendment, the “Note”) with a strategic investor (the “Holder”). The Amendment modifies certain terms of the Original Note, including the extension of the maturity date of the Note…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K relating to the issuance of the Convertible Notes and the Company’s obligations thereunder is incorporated herein by reference. The Company incurred the obligations under the Convertible Notes upon execution of the Purchase Agreement on December 15, 2025. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Statements made in this Current Report on Form 8-K that are not descriptions of historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation. The information set forth under
“GCT continues to target shipments of its 5G chipsets to begin in the fourth quarter of 2025.”