Reading GCMG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GCMG free→Reading GCMG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GCMG free→NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 GCMG trades at 14× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $12 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.01x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.18 (-8.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$141.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$283.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,643.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Valuation fell by 14.9 points (from 61.0 to 46.1).
As of June 15, 2026, the signal changed to mixed. Valuation fell.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends affect the overall health of the financial sector. A drop signals weakening demand.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below its median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GCMG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , GCM Grosvenor Inc. (the “Company”) reported financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release and earnings presentation issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, i…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GCMG GCM Grosvenor, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 10, 2026 , GCM Grosvenor Inc. (the “Company”) reported financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release and earnings presentation issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 a…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025 , GCM Grosvenor Inc. (the “Company”) reported financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. The full text of the press release and earnings presentation issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 a…
Other Events. On November 17, 2025, GCM Grosvenor Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, as agent (the “Manager”), under which the Company may offer and sell opportunistically, from time to time at its sole discretion, up to an aggregate of $100 million of shares of its Class A common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Class A Common Stock”), through the Manager (the “Offering”), pursuant to an effective shelf…
is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly provided by specific reference in such a filing. Forward Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements w…