GCM Grosvenor, Inc. (GCMG)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-09
$12.90-2.12%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
GCM Grosvenor is a top global alternative asset manager. It aims to grow adjusted net income per share to $0.18 in 2026. The firm has strong partnerships, like with Banner Capital. Analysts expect about 11% revenue growth next year.
Private equity profits may fall due to hawkish policies. Earnings estimates have recently been cut. Litigation and officer departures add risks.
The price is about 21% above our fair value near $11. Analysts expect 11% revenue growth. Our view is close to consensus but slightly cautious on earnings.
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS falls below $0.16 in FY26
Focus on increasing adjusted net income per share as a key measure of financial performance and shareholder value.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable company with a focus on growth, but the current thesis is weakened due to recent mixed results. The company has a robust earnings quality but faces challenges in maintaining operating income and revenue momentum.
The market currently prices GCMG at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation. However, there is a small expectations gap, indicating that the market has moderate expectations for future performance.
Management is focused on driving adjusted net income growth, which has shown positive results. However, operating income has declined, and revenue growth has stalled, suggesting that fundamentals may face challenges in the near term.
The future performance of GCMG will depend significantly on guidance from the company and the performance of major sector players like BLK, BX, and KKR. Any cuts in guidance or negative trends from these bellwethers could impact GCMG negatively.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. GCMG's recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change indicates a weakened reason to own the stock. Additionally, the company missed earnings expectations in its latest report. However, GCMG expects a sequential increase in management fees, which may support operating income growth.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted net income per share grew 22% year-over-year as of 2026-Q2, with management providing 2026 EPS guidance around $0.19 per share. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated focus.
“Fee-Related Earnings Up 21%, and Adjusted Net Income Up 22% Year-Over-Year”
“Significant Progress Across Key Business Objectives with Substantial Growth in AUM and Fee-Paying AUM”
“Adjusted Net Income per Share $ 0.18”
Breaks if: Hawkish policies delay PE carry by more than 6 months
Breaks if: No new partnerships or loss of key partners next year
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 7% next year
In the next 1 to 3 years, GCMG's performance will largely depend on its ability to navigate sector dynamics and improve its operating income. Not investment advice.