GCM Grosvenor, Inc. (GCMG)

NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-23

$12.37-1.98%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge GCM Grosvenor, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	190.33M
EPS	—	0.324
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	583.8M
EPS	—	0.898
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	670.53M
EPS	—	1.075

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted net income per share reaches $0.18 in 2026	It aims to grow adjusted net income per share to $0.18 in 2026.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EPS falls below $0.16 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted net income per share grew 22% year-over-year as of 2026-Q2, with management providing 2026 EPS guidance around $0.19 per share. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Private equity carry not delayed by hawkish rates	A supporting condition in GCM Grosvenor, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material delay in PE carry timing.	Intact	Hawkish policies delay PE carry by more than 6 months	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
New partnerships strengthen market position	A supporting condition in GCM Grosvenor, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or grow partnership deals.	Intact	No new partnerships or loss of key partners next year	New partnership (Banner Capital) secured in Jun 2026 vs target of sustained growth GCM Grosvenor secured investment from Banner Capital in June 2026, reinforcing market position. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 11% in next 12 months	A primary condition in GCM Grosvenor, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=11% YoY.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-26	$1.05	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-28	$1.05	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-29	$1.05	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-30	$1.05	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-31	$1.05	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-04	$1.05	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-05	$1.05	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-06	$1.05	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-08	$1.05	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-09	$1.05	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-10	$1.05	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	1
2026-06-01	4	1
2026-07-01	4	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 19 · prior Aug 11

$16.00 → $14.50-9.4%

$0$8.80$17.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted net income per share reaches $0.18 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Private equity carry not delayed by hawkish ratesQualitative condition
Revenue grows at least 11% in next 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

GCM Grosvenor, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

GCMG is an earnings-growth business with robust earnings quality and stable management, though recent financial performance is neutral and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Its current long-term thesis is under watch, with medium confidence and muted reaction to recent results.

What's priced into GCM Grosvenor, Inc.

The valuation is stretched and carries a 1.15 premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is 0.13, suggesting expectations are somewhat elevated. Fragility is low, but that does not remove the risk that the premium becomes harder to support if execution weakens.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, adjusted net income per share growth is on track: it rose 22% year over year in 2026-Q2, and management gave 2026 EPS guidance around $0.19 per share. Operating income fell from $54.7 million in 2025-Q4 to $20.5 million in 2026-Q2, while revenue momentum has been limited; a guidance cut on the next call is a key near-term risk.

What GCM Grosvenor, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether earnings-per-share growth can continue while operating income stabilizes and revenue momentum improves. A guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts could weigh on the business and sector, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as BLK, BX, and KKR would support sector momentum.