Reading FOXF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FOXF free→Reading FOXF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FOXF free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If FOXF cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $18 the market pays 18× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 18× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $15 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 24% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.15x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.19 → $0.18 (-0.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$227.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$501.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,663.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If it falls below this level, it shows weak demand. This could hurt future growth.
Confirms:Q2 net sales reported below $343 million.
Disproves:Q2 net sales exceed $365 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FOXF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FOXF Fox Factory | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | full | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Aim to increase gross profit through strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies.
Drive revenue growth through market expansion and product innovation.
Why it matters: This would show if Fox Factory's growth is slowing in a tough market. It could signal deeper issues with demand.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 1% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Net sales will show if demand is getting better or if problems continue.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 net sales exceed $365 million.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 net sales fall below $343 million.
Why it matters: Better margins mean Fox Factory is working better. They are also making more money.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin improves to at least 10% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin is still below 9% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects revenue. Strong spending can boost Fox Factory's sales.
Confirms:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth above 1% in June.
Disproves:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending decline or flat growth.
Why it matters: New board members and a change committee may improve how the company runs.
Confirms:Good performance metrics were seen after new directors joined the board.
Disproves:No signs of better performance after the board changes.
Why it matters: This report will show if revenue growth is improving. It is key for future profits.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth in the Q2 report shows an increase over the previous quarter.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth in the Q2 report declines or stays flat compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows progress in managing costs. This helps restore investor trust.
Confirms:Operating income in Q2 is better than in the last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income in Q2 declines or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: This shows trouble with cost management and running the business well.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA is less than $32 million.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA is more than $40 million.
Why it matters: Finishing this could improve margins and how the business runs. This may help profits.
Confirms:Management says Phase 2 efforts are done. They expect to save $40 million.
Disproves:Management reports delays or problems with Phase 2 efforts.
Why it matters: New board members and a change committee could help with execution and profits.
Confirms:The new board members share good news about better operations.
Disproves:No big changes in how the business performs after the board changes.
Why it matters: Better gross profit is important for financial health. It impacts operating income.
Confirms:Gross profit margin increases in the Q2 earnings report compared to Q1.
Disproves:Gross profit margin decreases or remains the same in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: Success in achieving $40 million in cost savings is key for improving margins.
Confirms:Management confirms at least $20 million in cost savings achieved by Q3 2026.
Disproves:Cost savings reported below $10 million by Q3 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Sixth Amendment to Credit Agreement and Third Amendment to Guaranty and Security Agreement On May 6, 2026, Fox Factory Holding Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into the Sixth Amendment to Credit Agreement and Third Amendment to Guaranty and Security Agreement (the “Amendment”) among the Company, certain subsidiaries of the Company, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, swingline lender and L/C issuer…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included or incorporated by reference in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Pursuant to the terms of the previously announced Cooperation Agreement (the “Cooperation Agreement”), dated as of February 8, 2026, by and among Fox Factory Holding Corp. (the “Company”) and Engine Capital L.P. and certain of its affiliates, on March 25, 2026, the board of directors of the Company (the “Board”) increased the size of the Board by o…
of this Current Report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.