Reading ALSN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALSN free→
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$119.35+1.70%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If ALSN cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Auto Parts
- Market cap
- $9.73B
- Employees
- 12,000
- IPO date
- 2011-03-18
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $119.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$99.33consensus
Range $95.16 – $114.15
vs price: +20% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$205.10consensus
Range $121.59 – $427.32
vs price: -42% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $117 ALSN trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $100 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
17.9x
peer 14.6x · own history —
Premium
1.2x peer
Growth the price needs
18%
our forecast 14%
Our fair value
$99.72
range $95.53 – $114.87
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 20% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
66th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
43rd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +7.9% / 30d, n=6for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.37 → $2.56 (+7.9% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme value-trade-down.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$134.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$264.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,038.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth turning positive in the sector
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a recovery in consumer spending. This could help Allison Transmission.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Consumer spending in the discretionary sector is up from last year.
Disproves:Consumer spending in the discretionary sector is down from last year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALSN yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ORLY, AZO, and BWA keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting ALSN and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ALSN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ALSN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ORLY, AZO, and BWA start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping ALSN and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ALSN and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-041mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (“Allison”) published an earnings release reporting its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the earnings release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. Following the publication of the earnings release, Allison will host an earnings call on May 4, 2026 at 5:00 p.m. ET on which its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 will be discussed. The i…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.