Reading GTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GTX free→Reading GTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's recent track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while GTX trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, as any cuts in guidance could negatively impact estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 GTX trades at 20× p/e — 1.4× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $26 fair value is medium-confidence here. Analysts: $24–$42. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 31% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.48 (-0.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 29.4% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$164.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$300.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,987.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GTX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 18, 2026, Garrett Motion Inc. (the “Company”) entered into Amendment No. 2 (the “Second Amendment”) to that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of January 30, 2025, by and among the Company, Garrett Motion Holdings Inc., Garrett LX I S.à r.l., Garrett Motion Sàrl, the lenders and issuing banks party thereto, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent (as amended, the “Credit Agreement,” and as further amended by…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$24.00 – $42.00 (median $36.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-21
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GTX Garrett Motion, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Garrett aims to increase its revenue to between $3.6 billion and $3.9 billion for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $878M in 2025-Q1 to $985M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the $3.6-$3.9B target for 2026. The trajectory shows delivering growth.
“Raising 2026 full-year outlook to $3.6 billion to $3.9 billion.”
“Net sales (GAAP) $3.6 billion to $3.8 billion.”
Garrett plans to achieve $5 billion in revenue by the year 2030.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a long-term revenue target of $5B by 2030. Current revenue growth from $878M in 2025-Q1 to $985M in 2026-Q1 suggests initial progress, but the long-term trajectory remains to be seen.
“Garrett sales by technology...planned ~$5B by 2030.”
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
and Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
and Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
and Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.