Reading DORM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DORM free→Reading DORM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DORM free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If DORM cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $125.75. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $126 DORM trades at 15× p/e, in line with its 14× p/e peer median. Our $103 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 23% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.56x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.91 → $1.89 (-1.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 4 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$119.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$291.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,958.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting or exceeding this EPS would support management's guidance and show earnings strength.
Confirms:Q2 diluted EPS reported at $7.57 or higher.
Disproves:Q2 diluted EPS reported below $7.57.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DORM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 2, 2026, Dorman Products, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”), by and among the Company, the guarantors party thereto and BofA Securities, Inc., as representative of the several initial purchasers listed therein (the “Initial Purchasers”), providing for the issuance and sale of $450 million aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 6.250% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “Notes”) in a private transaction in reliance upon an exemp…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DORM Dorman Products, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | moderate |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company continues to reaffirm its full-year 2026 revenue guidance, expecting a 7% to 9% increase year-over-year.
The company reaffirms its full-year 2026 EPS guidance, expecting diluted EPS to be in the range of $7.57 to $7.97.
The company is committed to returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases.
Why it matters: Tariff changes can greatly affect costs and pricing plans.
Confirms one read:Announcement of tariff changes that reduce costs for Dorman.
Confirms the other:They announced new tariffs or raised existing ones.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal weakening demand for Dorman's products.
Confirms:Q1 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q1 revenue growth stays above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More share repurchases can show that management trusts the company's value and future.
Confirms:Dorman announces a new share repurchase program or increases the current one.
Disproves:If share repurchases go down or stop, it shows management lacks confidence.
Why it matters: More people are filing for unemployment. This may lead to less spending and lower sales for Dorman.
Confirms:Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims have gone up a lot since the last report.
Disproves:Unemployment claims fall or remain stable.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management is confident. They can also change stock price.
Confirms:They announced more share buybacks after the $51 million already done.
Disproves:No further share repurchases announced or a halt in repurchase plans.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Dorman meets its revenue and EPS guidance for 2026.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 net sales growth of 7% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 net sales growth less than 7% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Completing this will change Dorman's debt and how it manages money.
Confirms:They announced the successful sale of $450 million in senior notes.
Disproves:Not completing the offering or announcing bad terms will be a problem.
Results of Operation and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Dorman Products, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its operating results for the first fiscal quarter ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The Company will hold a conference call and webcast on May 5, 2026 (see information in the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 under “Conference Call and Webcast”).
Results of Operation and Financial Condition On February 25, 2026, Dorman Products, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The Company will hold a conference call and webcast on February 26, 2026 (see information in the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 under “Conference Call and Web…