Reading APTV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APTV free→Reading APTV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APTV free→
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, but compared with sector peers, APTV is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact APTV's performance.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $65.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $67 APTV trades at 8× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $82 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $71–$97. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 13.24x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.42 → $1.42 (-0.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 8 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 95% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 35.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$159.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$440.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,071.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue guidance is below this level, it shows ongoing market challenges after the spin-off.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue guidance below $3.2 billion.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue guidance above $3.4 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Safety risk from airbag inflators could lead to recalls.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Aptiv PLC (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as an exhibit and is incorporated herein by reference. The press release and teleconference visual presentation are available on the Company’s website at aptiv.com . The information in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$71.00 – $97.00 (median $79.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
ALSN Allison Transmission Holdings Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | moderate |
25 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 75% of the last 4 guided quarters · 43.3% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the spin-off of the Electrical Distribution Systems business into Versigent PLC.
Focus on managing debt levels and optimizing the capital structure post-spin-off.
Manage leadership changes to ensure continuity and strategic alignment.
Why it matters: Slow growth in North America may show bigger market problems for Aptiv.
Confirms:North America revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Disproves:North America revenue growth above 7% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing this will help Aptiv's finances and lower its debt.
Confirms:All valid notes will be accepted by the April 7 settlement date.
Disproves:Not all tendered notes are accepted or the offer is canceled.
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, the Company made available certain supplemental investor information on its website at https://ir.aptiv.com , related to the separation of its Electrical Distribution Systems business which completed its spin-off into a new publicly traded company, Versigent PLC, on April 1, 2026.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On April 1, 2026, the Spin-Off was completed in accordance with the Separation and Distribution Agreement. The description of the Spin-Off included under the Introductory Note of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated into this
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Prior to the Distribution Date, the Company and Versigent entered into a separation and distribution agreement (the “Separation and Distribution Agreement”) to effect the Spin-Off. The Separation and Distribution Agreement sets forth the Company’s agreements with Versigent regarding the principal actions to be taken in connection with the Spin-Off, and other agreements that govern aspects of the Company’s relationship with Versigent following the Sp…
Other Events. Aptiv PLC (the “Company”) previously announced that Aptiv Swiss Holdings Limited, a Jersey incorporated private limited company (“ASH”) and a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, commenced a cash tender offer (the “Tender Offer”) to purchase its outstanding 3.250% Senior Notes due 2032, 5.150% Senior Notes due 2034, 5.750% Senior Notes due 2054, 5.400% Senior Notes due 2049, 4.400% Senior Notes due 2046, 4.150% Senior Notes due 2052 and 3.100% Senior Notes due 2051 (the “Note…