Reading MOD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MOD free→Reading MOD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MOD free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 352% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of bellwethers like ORLY, AZO, and BWA. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $285.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $274, MOD's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 55× p/e (3.7× the 15× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~324% near-term growth vs our ~19% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $65 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $263–$428. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 349% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.05x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.66 → $1.42 (-14.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$269.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$631.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,755.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MOD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 26, 2026, Modine Manufacturing Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the results of operations and financial condition for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. During a conference call scheduled to be held at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on May 27, 2026, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Neil D. Brinker, and Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Michael B. Lucareli, will d…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$263.00 – $428.00 (median $335.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
ALSN Allison Transmission Holdings Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | full | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Modine aims to grow its net sales by 20% to 35% in fiscal 2027.
Newly stated in 2026-Q4. Modine aims for a 20% to 35% increase in net sales for fiscal 2027. Revenue for 2026-Q4 was $954.4 million, up from $805 million in 2026-Q3, indicating a positive trajectory towards this goal.
“Modine provides its outlook for fiscal 2027: Net Sales +20% to 35%.”
Modine targets adjusted EBITDA between $650 million and $680 million for fiscal 2027.
Newly stated in 2026-Q4. Modine targets adjusted EBITDA of $650M to $680M for fiscal 2027. Operating income for 2026-Q4 was $103.9 million, up from $89.3 million in 2026-Q3, showing progress towards this target.
“Modine provides its outlook for fiscal 2027: Adjusted EBITDA $650 to $680 million.”
Modine aims to maintain a positive free cash flow outlook of 0% to 1% for fiscal 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. Modine's free cash flow outlook for fiscal 2026 is 0% to 1%. Cash from operating activities was $194.9 million in 2026-Q4, up from $24.7 million in 2026-Q3, indicating progress towards maintaining positive cash flow.
“FCF Outlook: +0% to +1% for fiscal 2026.”
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 30, 2026, Modine Manufacturing Company (the “Company”) and Airedale International Air Conditioning Limited, as borrowers (collectively, the “Borrowers”), entered into Amendment No. 2 (the “Amendment”) to the Sixth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of July 10, 2025 (as previously amended, the “Credit Agreement”), by and among the Borrowers, the lenders party thereto, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent. The A…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 4, 2026, Modine Manufacturing Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the results of operations and financial condition for the third quarter ended December 31, 2025. During a conference call scheduled to be held at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time on February 5, 2026, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Neil D. Brinker, and Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Michael B. Lucareli, will discuss…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 29, 2026, Modine Manufacturing Company, a Wisconsin corporation (the “ Company ” or “ Modine ”), entered into definitive agreements with Gentherm Incorporated, a Michigan corporation (“ Gentherm ”), pursuant to which the Company’s Performance Technologies business (the “ Performance Technologies Business ”) will be combined with Gentherm in a Reverse Morris Trust transaction. As a result of the transaction, the Company will receive $210 m…
by reference. Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K includes “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act, including statements regarding the proposed transaction among 5 Gentherm, Modine and SpinCo. These forward-looking statements generally are identified by the words “believe,” “feel,” “project,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “appear,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “outlook,” “target,”…