Modine Manufacturing Co. (MOD)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$133.34-1.35%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Modine Manufacturing Co.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	1.04B
EPS	—	1.88
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.06B
EPS	—	7.16
EBITDA	$650M–$680Mnon-GAAP	—
Revenue growth	20%–35%	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.6B
EPS	—	10.184

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $650M to $680M in fiscal 2027	The company targets adjusted EBITDA between $650 million and $680 million for the same period.	Under Pressure	adjusted EBITDA falls below $650M in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was $471.0 million for fiscal 2026 and $106.5 million in 2027-Q1. Management reaffirmed fiscal 2027 guidance for adjusted EBITDA between $650 million and $680 million. The trajectory shows continued profitability improvement consistent with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain positive free cash flow outlook of 0% to 1% in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow is expected to remain positive, supporting financial health.	Intact	free cash flow yield falls below 0% in FY26	Free cash flow yield: 1.39% As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20261.39 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: MOD:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 quarters. Net cash from operations increased to $41.4 million in 2027-Q1, but free cash flow was negative $5.0 million due to higher capital expenditures. Fiscal 2026 free cash flow was $105.4 million, down $23.9 million from prior year. Management maintains a positive free cash flow outlook despite increased investments, showing mixed progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase revenue by 20% to 35% in fiscal 2027	A primary condition in Modine Manufacturing Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is 20% to 35% increase in revenue.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY27	Revenue: $874.1M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: 20% to 35% increase in revenue. Target and observation units differ. Source published Jul 30, 2026874,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6b45c898-d508-4d65-b266-3475b4c8a050. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $682.8 million in 2026-Q1 to $874.1 million in 2027-Q1, a 28% increase year-over-year. Management reaffirmed fiscal 2027 guidance for net sales growth of 20% to 35%. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPSUnavailable

$11.33 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2028 revenueUnavailable

$5.05B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.33	$5,050,896,110	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$11.33	$5,050,896,110	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$11.33	$5,050,896,110	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$11.33	$5,050,896,106	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$11.33	$5,050,896,110	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$11.33	$5,051,753,250	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$11.33	$5,051,753,249	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$11.29	$5,046,196,106	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$11.29	$5,046,196,106	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$11.29	$5,046,196,110	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$11.23	$5,042,569,240	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$11.23	$5,042,097,807	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$11.23	$5,042,097,807	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$11.18	$5,044,254,950	7 / 7
2026-08-07	$11.18	$5,044,254,950	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$11.18	$5,044,254,950	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$11.18	$5,050,269,240	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$11.18	$5,050,269,240	7 / 7
2026-08-12	$11.18	$5,044,254,950	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$11.18	$5,044,254,950	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$11.18	$5,044,254,950	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$11.18	$5,044,254,950	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$11.18	$5,044,254,950	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$11.18	$5,044,254,950	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$11.18	$5,044,254,950	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$11.18	$5,044,254,950	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$11.18	$5,050,269,235	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$11.18	$5,050,269,235	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$11.18	$5,050,269,235	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$11.18	$5,050,269,235	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$11.18	$5,050,269,235	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$11.18	$5,050,269,235	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$11.18	$5,050,269,235	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$11.18	$5,050,269,235	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$11.18	$5,050,269,235	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$11.18	$5,051,535,424	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$11.18	$5,051,535,424	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$11.18	$5,051,535,424	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$11.18	$5,051,535,424	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$11.18	$5,051,535,424	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$10.93	$4,966,754,950	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$10.94	$4,967,976,378	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$10.94	$4,967,976,378	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$10.94	$4,967,976,378	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$10.94	$4,967,976,378	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$10.94	$4,967,976,378	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$10.94	$4,967,976,378	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$10.94	$4,967,976,378	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$10.94	$4,967,976,378	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$10.94	$4,967,976,378	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$10.94	$4,967,976,378	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$10.64	$4,812,004,950	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$10.64	$4,812,004,950	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$10.64	$4,812,004,950	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$10.29	$4,812,019,235	5 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	0	0
2026-06-01	8	0	0
2026-07-01	8	0	0
2026-08-01	8	0	0
2026-09-01	8	0	0
2026-10-01	10	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 20

$275.00New observation · no comparable prior

Robert W. BairdOct 5

$300.00New observation · no comparable prior

OppenheimerOct 2 · prior May 28

$325.00 → $260.00-20.0%

$0$178.75$357.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $650M to $680M in fiscal 2027Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain positive free cash flow outlook of 0% to 1% in fiscal 2026Free cash flow yield: 1.39%
Increase revenue by 20% to 35% in fiscal 2027Revenue: $874.1M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Modine Manufacturing Co. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented business with a multi-year view that depends on sustained revenue expansion and improving profitability. The thesis is currently intact, though earnings quality is fragile, management execution has been volatile, and overall risk is elevated.

What's priced into Modine Manufacturing Co.

MOD is expensive versus peers, and its valuation has risen recently. The evidence labels expectations as unjustified, reflecting the gap between that valuation and weak execution quality; model confidence is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth is tracking management’s fiscal 2027 guidance, and adjusted EBITDA progress is mixed. The October 1 spin-off and merger with Gentherm was completed, with a cash distribution used to repay debt. A guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk, even though the stated near-term miss risk is low.

What Modine Manufacturing Co. hinges on

Over the next year, the thesis depends on MOD maintaining revenue growth guidance and delivering stronger profitability without another guidance cut. Sector signals also matter: continued strength from bellwethers could support the broader backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.