Reading MBLY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MBLY free→Reading MBLY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MBLY free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 237% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.53, MBLY's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 50× p/e (3.5× the 15× p/e peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $2.87 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $8.00–$17. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 232% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.14x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.06 (-4.2% / 30d). 5 raised, 5 cut, 23 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$206.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$547.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,562.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Mobileye can improve its financial performance. This is critical for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows higher revenue and fewer losses than before.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows ongoing losses and lower revenue.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue guidance for 2026
Launch of robotaxi service supports revenue growth objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026 Mobileye Global Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$8.00 – $17.00 (median $9.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-05-21
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MBLY Mobileye Global Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management raised the midpoint of full-year 2026 revenue guidance by 2% due to better-than-expected demand.
The outlook for adjusted operating income was increased by 8% at the midpoint, reflecting operating leverage.
Management provided a 2026 outlook for operating loss following the Mentee Robotics acquisition.
Advances: Increase revenue guidance for 2026
Targeting 2027 launch supports future revenue guidance.
of the Corporation’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on January 6, 2026 (the “Initial Form 8-K”) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The Initial Form 8-K stated that the aggregate purchase price under the Share Purchase Agreement would include up to 26,229,714 shares of Class A common stock, par value $0.01 per share, of the Corporation (the “Class A Stock”). On February 3, 2026, the Corporation and MEIL completed the Acquisition and paid the aggregate purchase price of $900,00…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. As previously announced, on January 5, 2026 (the “Signing Date”), Mobileye Global Inc. (the “Corporation”), a Delaware corporation, and Mobileye Vision Technologies Ltd. (“MEIL”), a company organized under the laws of the State of Israel and a subsidiary of the Corporation, entered into a share purchase agreement (the “Share Purchase Agreement”) to acquire 100% of the issued and outstanding stock of Mentee Robotics Ltd., a company organized under the l…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 22, 2026 Mobileye Global Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 27, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 6, 2026, Mobileye Global Inc. (the “Company”) noted in a presentation at Mobileye Live at CES 2026 and via live webcast that the estimated revenue of the Company for the fiscal year ended December 27, 2025 was “a bit short of $2 billion”. This statement was not intended to provide a precise indication of actual revenue for the fiscal year ended December 27, 2025. It was only intended as a general statement on the approximate size of th…