Mobileye Global Inc (MBLY)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.54-5.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mobileye Global Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.50 → 0.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-27
Revenue	—	463.3M
EPS	—	0.094
Annual ending 2026-12-27
Revenue	—	2.01B
EPS	—	0.501
Annual ending 2027-12-27
Revenue	—	2.19B
EPS	—	0.508

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Control operating losses post-acquisition	Management aims to control losses after a big acquisition.	Improving	Operating losses worsen beyond -$4 billion in FY26	Operating margin: -5.91% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves from -$3.9B in 2026-Q1 toward less negative by FY26 end. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 23, 2026-5.905512 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3364e899-883a-415c-a073-c4c879da06ee. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating loss widened sharply to $(3,896)M in 2026-Q1 from $(117)M in 2025-Q1 due to a $3,788M goodwill impairment related to the Mentee Robotics acquisition. Management provided 2026 operating loss guidance between $(4,331)M and $(4,281)M. The trajectory shows significant impact from acquisition-related charges with ongoing management focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Full-year 2026 revenue at about $1.975 billion	Mobileye raised 2026 revenue guidance to about $1.975 billion.	Intact	Full-year 2026 revenue falls below $1.9 billion	Revenue: $508M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.975B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 2026508,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3364e899-883a-415c-a073-c4c879da06ee. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased 27% year-over-year from $438M in 2025-Q1 to $558M in 2026-Q1. Management raised the full-year 2026 revenue guidance midpoint by 2% to $1,975M reflecting better-than-expected demand. The trajectory is delivering with consistent upward revisions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Robotaxi business supports revenue growth	A supporting condition in Mobileye Global Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Robotaxi revenue contributes meaningfully to overall growth in FY26.	Intact	Robotaxi revenue growth stalls or declines in FY26	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased 27% year-over-year from $438M in 2025-Q1 to $558M in 2026-Q1. Management raised the full-year 2026 revenue guidance midpoint by 2% to $1,975M reflecting better-than-expected demand. The trajectory is delivering with consistent upward revisions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.51

$0.40 → $0.51 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.19B

$2.21B → $2.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.40	$2,206,718,632	14 / 20
2026-07-25	$0.40	$2,206,718,632	14 / 20
2026-07-26	$0.46	$2,202,445,857	13 / 20
2026-07-27	$0.46	$2,202,445,857	13 / 20
2026-07-28	$0.46	$2,202,445,857	13 / 20
2026-07-29	$0.46	$2,202,445,857	13 / 20
2026-07-30	$0.48	$2,196,211,108	13 / 20
2026-07-31	$0.48	$2,196,211,108	13 / 20
2026-08-01	$0.48	$2,196,211,108	13 / 20
2026-08-02	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-03	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-04	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-05	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-06	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-07	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-08	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-09	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-10	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-12	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-13	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-14	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-15	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-16	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-17	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-18	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-19	$0.49	$2,191,075,108	13 / 20
2026-08-20	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	13 / 20
2026-08-21	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	13 / 20
2026-08-22	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	13 / 20
2026-08-23	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	13 / 20
2026-08-24	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	13 / 20
2026-08-25	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	13 / 20
2026-08-26	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	13 / 20
2026-08-27	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	13 / 20
2026-08-28	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	13 / 20
2026-08-29	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	14 / 20
2026-08-30	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	14 / 20
2026-08-31	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	14 / 20
2026-09-01	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	14 / 20
2026-09-02	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	14 / 20
2026-09-03	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	14 / 20
2026-09-04	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	14 / 20
2026-09-05	$0.50	$2,189,760,049	14 / 20
2026-09-06	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 19
2026-09-07	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 19
2026-09-08	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 19
2026-09-09	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-10	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-11	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-12	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-13	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-14	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-15	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-16	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-17	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-18	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-19	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-20	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-21	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-22	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-23	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-24	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-25	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	13 / 18
2026-09-26	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	12 / 17
2026-09-27	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	12 / 17
2026-09-28	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	12 / 17
2026-09-29	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	12 / 17
2026-09-30	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	12 / 17
2026-10-01	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	12 / 17
2026-10-02	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	12 / 17
2026-10-03	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	12 / 17
2026-10-04	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	12 / 17
2026-10-05	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	12 / 17
2026-10-06	$0.50	$2,190,817,735	12 / 17
2026-10-07	$0.50	$2,188,955,462	12 / 17
2026-10-08	$0.50	$2,188,464,882	12 / 17
2026-10-09	$0.50	$2,188,464,882	12 / 17
2026-10-10	$0.50	$2,188,464,882	12 / 17
2026-10-11	$0.50	$2,185,687,609	12 / 17
2026-10-12	$0.50	$2,185,686,282	12 / 17
2026-10-13	$0.50	$2,185,697,437	12 / 17
2026-10-14	$0.50	$2,185,697,437	12 / 17
2026-10-15	$0.50	$2,185,697,437	12 / 17
2026-10-16	$0.50	$2,185,697,437	12 / 17
2026-10-17	$0.50	$2,185,697,437	12 / 17
2026-10-18	$0.51	$2,185,333,801	13 / 17
2026-10-19	$0.51	$2,185,333,801	13 / 17
2026-10-20	$0.51	$2,185,102,455	13 / 17
2026-10-21	$0.51	$2,186,750,899	13 / 17
2026-10-22	$0.51	$2,186,750,899	13 / 18
2026-10-23	$0.51	$2,186,750,899	13 / 18
2026-10-24	$0.51	$2,186,750,899	13 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	14	1
2026-06-01	15	14	1
2026-07-01	14	14	1
2026-08-01	15	13	1
2026-09-01	15	12	1
2026-10-01	12	11	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades2 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 20 · prior Jul 24

$7.00 → $5.00-28.6%

Deutsche BankOct 12 · prior Jul 27

$13.00 → $12.00-7.7%

UBSOct 7 · prior Apr 24

$10.00 → $7.50-25.0%

Industrial Alliance SecuritiesOct 6

$8.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysSep 30

$9.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$7.15$14.30

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Control operating losses post-acquisitionOperating margin: -5.91%
Full-year 2026 revenue at about $1.975 billionRevenue: $508M
Robotaxi business supports revenue growthQualitative condition

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-53.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mobileye Global Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth business with elevated risk, rather than a proven durable compounder: recent revenue and adjusted operating income have improved, while reported results remain weak. The long-term thesis is on watch, with the signal now mixed after company momentum declined.

What's priced into Mobileye Global Inc

The valuation is at a 1.67-times premium to peers, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of the evidence. The pricing signal is labeled justified, with low fragility, but that does not remove the risk of a gap between expectations and delivery.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and adjusted operating income have support from higher 2026 guidance, following year-over-year growth in both measures. The operating loss widened sharply because of a goodwill impairment tied to the Mentee Robotics acquisition, and management’s operating-loss priority is behind. Recent company momentum fell, while transitions in the CEO and president roles add context to execution risk.

What Mobileye Global Inc hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued delivery against raised guidance and better control of operating losses after the acquisition-related charge. A guidance reversal could damage management credibility; stronger or weaker results and guidance from sector bellwethers GPC, BWA, and APTV could also change the sector backdrop.