Reading DAN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 71% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. The assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $30 DAN trades at 3× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $104 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $33–$42. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 72% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.31x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.62 → $0.65 (+5.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 23.4% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$162.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$310.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,427.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
The signal label changed from "favorable" to "mild_favorable." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More people are filing for unemployment. This may mean less spending by consumers. If consumers spend less, Dana's sales could drop.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay below 250,000.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DAN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Executive Transitions As previously disclosed by Dana in a Current Report on Form 8-K filed on February 12, 2026, Dana’s Board of Directors (the “ Dana Board ”) appointed Byron S. Foster to succeed R. Bruce McDonald as President and Chief Executive Officer (“ CEO ”), effective July 1, 2026, with Mr. McDonald continuing to serve as Chairman of the D…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$33.00 – $42.00 (median $40.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DAN Dana Incorporated | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Dana aims to achieve a $325 million cost reduction by 2026 through efficiency improvements and cost-saving actions.
Dana plans to increase adjusted EBITDA by $200 million in 2026 through cost savings and operational improvements.
Dana aims to maintain its sales guidance of $7.5 billion for 2026, leveraging increased backlog and recoveries.
Dana plans to achieve a $2 billion share repurchase program by 2030, enhancing shareholder value.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into financial health and progress on strategic goals.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows strong sales growth and improved margins.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows sales or margins are lower than expected.
Why it matters: This merger is key to Dana's growth strategy. It could enhance sales and margins.
Confirms:The merger closes as planned in Q1 2027 with no regulatory delays.
Disproves:The merger has big regulatory problems or is delayed past Q1 2027.
Why it matters: CPI data affects how much people spend. This can change Dana's revenue in the consumer sector.
Confirms one read:CPI shows an increase above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:CPI shows a decrease below 0.1% month over month.
Why it matters: Reaching this target is key for better profits and cash flow.
Confirms:Dana reports progress towards the $325M cost reduction target by Q3 2026.
Disproves:Dana fails to report significant progress on cost reductions by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This win expands Dana's market presence and could drive future revenue growth.
Confirms:Production for the RAM Dakota program starts on time in early 2028.
Disproves:Production delays or contract problems can affect new business wins.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people are spending. This will impact Dana's market outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows an increase above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decrease below 0.2% month over month.
Why it matters: This growth is key for Dana's finances and shows how well it operates.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA goes up by $200 million from 2025.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA growth is under $200 million. This shows weaker results.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential shift in the Consumer Discretionary sector. This could hurt Dana's performance.
Confirms:Dana's revenue growth falls below the sector median growth rate.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Dana can manage costs and boost profits.
Confirms:$325 million in cost reductions achieved by the end of 2026.
Disproves:Cost cuts are less than $325 million. This shows operational problems.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 10, 2026, Dana Incorporated, a Delaware corporation (“ Dana ”), entered into definitive agreements with Eaton Corporation plc, an Irish public limited company (“ Eaton ”), Eaton Corporation, a corporation registered in the State of Ohio and a wholly owned subsidiary of Eaton (“ Eaton Ohio ”), Eaton Capital Unlimited Company, an Irish public unlimited company and a wholly owned subsidiary of Eaton (“ Eaton HoldCo ” and, together with Eaton an…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 11, 2026, Dana Incorporated, a Delaware corporation (“ Dana ”), issued a press release announcing the proposed combination (the “ Proposed Combination ”) of Dana and the Vehicle and eMobility business segments of Eaton Corporation plc, an Irish public limited company (“ Eaton ”). A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The press release also announced that Dana will be hosting a conference call and webcast at 8:30 a.m., Eastern Time, o…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 12, 2026, Dana Incorporated (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Byron Foster to the position of President and Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) of the Company, effective July 1, 2026. The Board of Directors (the “Board”) also elected Mr. Foster to the Board, effective February 11, 2026. R. Bruce McDonald will continue to serve as…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Dana Incorporated (the “Company”) approved a grant of performance-vested restricted stock units (“PSUs”) to eligible participants, including our named executive officers (other than our Chief Executive Officer, Bruce McDonald) under the Company’s 2021 Omnibus Incentive Plan. The PSUs will…