Dana Incorporated (DAN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$30.45-2.68%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Dana aims to cut costs by $325 million by 2026 and increase adjusted EBITDA by $200 million in 2026. Sales are guided to $7.5 billion in 2026, supported by backlog and recoveries. The company is on track with a $2 billion share buyback plan by 2030. These efforts could improve profitability and shareholder returns.
The recent sharp selloff shows investor concern despite no thesis-breaking news. Profit margins remain thin at about 10.5% gross margin guidance for 2026. Management is volatile and progress on growth targets is mixed, risking failure to meet cost savings and EBITDA goals.
The price is about 20% above our fair value near $21, reflecting analysts' 31% revenue growth expectations. Our fair value is 44% below the Street median, indicating the market may be too optimistic on growth and margin improvements.
Breaks if: EBITDA increase less than $150M in FY26
Drive adjusted EBITDA growth by $200 million in 2026 through cost savings, operational improvements, and higher margin new business.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with elements of a durable compounder. The current thesis state indicates that while recent performance has been strong, management execution remains volatile, and risks are elevated.
The market appears to be pricing in a stretched valuation, reflecting concerns about execution quality and fragility in earnings. There is an expectations gap, suggesting that investors may be cautious about future performance despite the company's recent achievements.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued progress in achieving management priorities, such as cost reductions and EBITDA growth. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, as the probability of a miss is significant.
The thesis hinges on several key factors, including the successful completion of the Eaton Mobility combination and the ability to maintain earnings guidance. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector peers will be crucial in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 quarters including 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, and 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $147 million in 2025-Q2 to $207 million in 2026-Q2 (+$60 million), and $171 million in 2026-Q1 (+$78 million vs prior year). Management raised full-year guidance reflecting a $200 million increase target, showing delivery on this priority.
“Adjusted EBITDA increased by $60 million versus Q2 2025; full-year guidance raised.”
“Adjusted EBITDA of $171 million; $78 million higher than Q1 2025.”
“Adjusted EBITDA expected to increase by $200 million in 2026.”
Breaks if: Cost savings fall short of $300M by FY26
Continue executing cost reduction initiatives to realize $325 million in savings by the end of 2026, supporting margin expansion.
Stated in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Cost savings achieved include $248 million in 2025 and additional $19 million in Q2 2026, with a total target of $325 million by end of 2026. The trajectory shows consistent progress and management reiterates the target, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Achieved $19 million in additional cost savings.”
“Achieved $35 million in additional cost savings; on track for ~$65 million in 2026.”
“Achieved $248 million in cost savings in 2025; on track for $325 million total.”
“Cost savings program progressing toward $325 million target.”
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 10%
Continue executing cost reduction initiatives to realize $325 million in savings by the end of 2026, supporting margin expansion.
Stated in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Cost savings achieved include $248 million in 2025 and additional $19 million in Q2 2026, with a total target of $325 million by end of 2026. The trajectory shows consistent progress and management reiterates the target, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Achieved $19 million in additional cost savings.”
“Achieved $35 million in additional cost savings; on track for ~$65 million in 2026.”
“Achieved $248 million in cost savings in 2025; on track for $325 million total.”
“Cost savings program progressing toward $325 million target.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $7.3B in FY26
Sustain sales around $7.5 billion in 2026, supported by backlog, recoveries, and pricing actions despite market challenges.
Stated in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Sales guidance for 2026 has been consistently maintained around $7.5 billion, with a recent upward revision to $7.65-$7.85 billion. Actual quarterly sales ranged near $1.87B to $2.01B, supporting the guidance. The trajectory is delivering as management maintains and slightly raises sales expectations.
“Dana revised full-year sales guidance upward to $7.65 to $7.85 billion.”
“Sales guidance maintained at $7.30 to $7.70 billion for 2026.”
“2026 sales guidance of approximately $7.5 billion maintained.”
“Dana 2026 guidance snapshot post Off-Highway sale: ~$7.5 billion sales.”
Breaks if: Repurchases fall below $250M in FY26
Continue and expand share repurchase program targeting $2 billion total repurchases through 2030 to return capital to shareholders.
Stated in 3 quarters including 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Dana restarted its share repurchase program in 2026, repurchasing 1.2 million shares in Q2 and 4.4 million shares in Q1, returning $169 million year-to-date with plans for an additional ~$200 million in 2026. The Board increased the total repurchase authorization to $2 billion through 2030. The trajectory is delivering consistent capital return.
“Restarted share repurchase program; repurchased 1.2 million shares in Q2 2026.”
“Repurchased 4.4 million shares in Q1 2026; on track for ~$300 million in 2026.”
“Capital return program increased and extended to $2 billion through 2030.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, DAN's performance will depend on management's execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.