Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-29
$4.36-1.13%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put AUR beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Automotive Parts & Equipment: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Revenue reaches about $15 billion in FY26: Revenue guidance: $14M to $16M.
View ThesisRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 10%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityManagement screens weak on capital allocation, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 48% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAurora’s thesis rests on scaling commercial driverless truck deployment, despite weak recent financial performance. Its latest quarter was inline, while the prior quarter’s revenue grew 100% year over year. That revenue growth does not establish an accelerating trend. No clean valuation multiple is available, so the desk cannot define a peer-multiple comparison. The price is roughly in line with the growth we forecast. The specific risk is that FY26 revenue guidance of $14 million to $16 million conflicts with the thesis’s stated $15 billion pillar. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 20%. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% above where it trades; the thesis has broken, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. AUR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 13 analysts currently covering AUR (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 7 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for AUR in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUR Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
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| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automotive Parts & Equipment — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put AUR next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Ramp truck manufacturing capacity
Specific production ramp target supports manufacturing capacity, though the 2027 fleet goal remains aspirational.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $4.36
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $4.36.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Scale commercial deployment of driverless trucks
Driverless trucking scaling aligns with growth objectives.
Advances: Scale commercial deployment of driverless trucks
Increased price target indicates confidence in commercial deployment.
Advances: Increase revenue to $14-$16 million in 2026
Profitability aligns with revenue growth objectives.
Advances: Scale commercial deployment of driverless trucks
Scaling deployment aligns with growth objectives.
Advances: Scale commercial deployment of driverless trucks
Partnership enhances scaling of driverless truck deployment.
Advances: Scale commercial deployment of driverless trucks
Targets significant growth in driverless truck deployment.
Outperform rating supports positive outlook for AUR.