Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$4.81-1.03%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Aurora Innovation Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	8.82M
EPS	—	-0.124
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$14M–$16M	14.84M
EPS	—	-0.494
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	177.86M
EPS	—	-0.46

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow near $205 million in FY26	Free cash flow is expected near $205 million.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $190M in FY26	Free cash flow: $-256M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$205M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026-256,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Strategic partnerships expand market presence	Partnerships like with McLane improve market reach.	Improving	Loss of major partnerships or no new deals announced	Qualitative: New partnership (McLane) + scaling targets (20 trucks/week) vs sustain/grow target Aurora partnered with McLane for driverless hauls and targets 20 trucks/week, reinforcing market presence growth. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $15 billion in FY26	Aurora aims to grow revenue to about $15 billion in 2026.	Broken	Revenue falls below $14B in FY26	Revenue: $2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$15B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20262,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 65b5f787-44c5-40dc-8c4c-8380da69f1c0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.46

Unavailable → $-0.46 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.18B

$0.19B → $0.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$185,961,720	3 / 12
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$185,961,720	3 / 12
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$185,961,720	3 / 12
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$185,961,720	3 / 12
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$185,961,720	3 / 12
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$185,961,720	3 / 12
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$185,961,720	3 / 12
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$184,823,240	2 / 12
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$184,823,240	2 / 12
2026-08-02	$-0.45	$179,681,574	5 / 9
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$184,631,570	2 / 12
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$184,631,570	2 / 12
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$184,631,570	2 / 12
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$184,631,570	2 / 12
2026-08-07	$-0.45	$179,681,574	5 / 9
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$184,631,570	2 / 12
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$184,631,570	2 / 12
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$184,631,570	2 / 12
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$184,631,570	2 / 12
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$184,631,570	2 / 12
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$184,631,570	2 / 12
2026-08-14	$-0.45	$179,681,574	5 / 9
2026-08-15	$-0.45	$179,681,574	5 / 9
2026-08-16	$-0.45	$179,681,574	5 / 9
2026-08-17	$-0.45	$179,681,574	5 / 9
2026-08-18	$-0.45	$179,681,574	5 / 9
2026-08-19	$-0.45	$179,681,574	5 / 9
2026-08-20	$-0.45	$179,681,574	5 / 9
2026-08-21	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-08-22	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-08-23	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-08-24	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-08-25	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-08-26	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-08-27	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-08-28	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-08-29	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-08-30	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-08-31	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-01	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-02	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-03	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-04	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-05	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-06	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-07	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-08	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-09	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-10	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-11	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-12	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-13	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-14	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-15	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-16	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-17	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-18	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-19	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-20	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-21	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-22	$-0.45	$179,681,574	6 / 9
2026-09-23	$-0.45	$179,681,549	6 / 9
2026-09-24	$-0.45	$179,678,241	6 / 9
2026-09-25	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$-0.46	$176,183,824	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$-0.46	$177,125,491	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$-0.46	$177,125,491	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$-0.46	$177,125,491	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$-0.46	$177,125,491	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$-0.46	$177,125,491	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$-0.46	$177,125,491	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$-0.46	$177,864,172	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$-0.46	$177,864,172	6 / 9
2026-10-17	$-0.46	$177,864,172	6 / 9
2026-10-18	$-0.46	$177,864,172	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$-0.46	$177,864,172	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$-0.46	$177,864,172	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$-0.46	$177,864,172	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$-0.46	$177,864,172	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$-0.46	$177,864,172	6 / 9
2026-10-24	$-0.46	$177,864,172	6 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	5
2026-06-01	8	5
2026-07-01	8	5
2026-08-01	8	5
2026-09-01	9	5
2026-10-01	8	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

OppenheimerOct 8

$16.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$8.80$17.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow near $205 million in FY26Free cash flow: $-256M
Revenue reaches about $15 billion in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Aurora Innovation Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth business, meaning its long-term case depends on building a much larger commercial operation rather than current profits. The thesis is on watch: early revenue growth and management’s stated progress are constructive, but recent performance is weak and company momentum has fallen.

What's priced into Aurora Innovation Inc

The evidence gives no valuation comparison or specific account of market expectations, so whether AUR is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear. The priced-in evidence shows low fragility, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around expectations for a loss-making company.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue is growing from a small base, and management has kept its 2026 revenue guidance while targeting 200 driverless trucks by year-end and a driver-as-a-service model in 2027. Cash use was slightly above management’s stated range in the second quarter, and the latest quarter was an earnings miss after a run of misses, leaving execution risk elevated.

What Aurora Innovation Inc hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on whether commercial deployments scale and revenue reaches management’s stated 2026 goal, while cash use remains manageable. Near term, another guidance cut would weaken the case; results and guidance from sector bellwethers could also affect the sector backdrop, though AUR-specific evidence on that link is limited.