Aptiv (APTV)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$44.86-0.73%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Aptiv’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.55 → 6.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow about $750 million	Free cash flow is about $750 million.	Broken	Free cash flow falls below $650 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $33M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$750M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202633,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable leadership after executive changes	A supporting condition in Aptiv's published investment case. The stated target is No major leadership disruptions next 4 quarters.	Intact	Additional key executive departures occur within next 4 quarters	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income near $1.18 billion	Profit stays strong near $1.2 billion.	Broken	Operating income falls below $1.18 billion in 2025-Q4	Operating income: $367M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.18B operating income. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 2026367,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 15dd75ca-e631-4343-b66f-a7ed4959768b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $13.2 billion	Profit stays strong near $1.2 billion.	Broken	Revenue falls below $12.8 billion in FY26	Revenue: $3.274B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$13.2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20263,274,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 15dd75ca-e631-4343-b66f-a7ed4959768b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.51

$6.78 → $6.51 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.25B

$13.58B → $13.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.78	$13,578,197,050	18 / 16
2026-07-25	$6.78	$13,578,197,050	18 / 16
2026-07-26	$6.78	$13,578,197,050	18 / 16
2026-07-27	$6.77	$13,585,369,718	10 / 12
2026-07-28	$6.78	$13,578,197,050	18 / 16
2026-07-29	$6.78	$13,578,197,050	18 / 16
2026-07-30	$6.78	$13,578,197,050	18 / 16
2026-07-31	$6.78	$13,578,197,050	18 / 16
2026-08-01	$6.77	$13,585,369,718	10 / 12
2026-08-02	$6.78	$13,578,197,050	18 / 16
2026-08-03	$6.76	$13,575,322,050	17 / 16
2026-08-04	$6.76	$13,575,322,050	17 / 16
2026-08-05	$6.76	$13,575,322,050	17 / 16
2026-08-06	$6.76	$13,575,322,050	17 / 16
2026-08-07	$6.57	$13,308,474,227	9 / 12
2026-08-08	$6.57	$13,308,474,227	9 / 12
2026-08-09	$6.57	$13,299,716,390	18 / 17
2026-08-10	$6.57	$13,299,716,390	18 / 17
2026-08-11	$6.57	$13,308,474,227	9 / 12
2026-08-12	$6.57	$13,308,474,227	9 / 12
2026-08-13	$6.53	$13,258,323,720	18 / 17
2026-08-14	$6.57	$13,308,474,227	9 / 12
2026-08-15	$6.57	$13,308,474,227	9 / 12
2026-08-16	$6.57	$13,308,474,227	9 / 12
2026-08-17	$6.57	$13,308,474,227	9 / 12
2026-08-18	$6.57	$13,308,474,227	9 / 12
2026-08-19	$6.57	$13,308,474,227	9 / 12
2026-08-20	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-08-21	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-08-22	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-08-23	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-08-24	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-08-25	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-08-26	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-08-27	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-08-28	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-08-29	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-08-30	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-08-31	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-09-01	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-09-02	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-09-03	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-09-04	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-09-05	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-09-06	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-09-07	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-09-08	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-09-09	$6.53	$13,267,062,463	10 / 13
2026-09-10	$6.55	$13,274,336,770	10 / 13
2026-09-11	$6.55	$13,274,336,770	10 / 13
2026-09-12	$6.55	$13,274,336,770	10 / 13
2026-09-13	$6.55	$13,274,336,770	10 / 13
2026-09-14	$6.55	$13,274,336,770	10 / 13
2026-09-15	$6.55	$13,274,336,770	10 / 13
2026-09-16	$6.55	$13,274,336,770	10 / 13
2026-09-17	$6.55	$13,274,336,770	10 / 13
2026-09-18	$6.55	$13,274,336,770	10 / 13
2026-09-19	$6.55	$13,274,336,770	10 / 13
2026-09-20	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 13
2026-09-21	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 13
2026-09-22	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 13
2026-09-23	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 13
2026-09-24	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 13
2026-09-25	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 13
2026-09-26	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 13
2026-09-27	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 13
2026-09-28	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 13
2026-09-29	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 12
2026-09-30	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 12
2026-10-01	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 13
2026-10-02	$6.56	$13,264,833,782	10 / 13
2026-10-03	$6.56	$13,267,157,057	10 / 13
2026-10-04	$6.56	$13,267,157,057	10 / 13
2026-10-05	$6.56	$13,267,157,057	10 / 13
2026-10-06	$6.56	$13,267,157,057	10 / 13
2026-10-07	$6.54	$13,251,109,939	10 / 13
2026-10-08	$6.54	$13,247,762,870	10 / 13
2026-10-09	$6.53	$13,247,762,870	10 / 13
2026-10-10	$6.53	$13,247,762,870	10 / 13
2026-10-11	$6.51	$13,241,327,575	10 / 13
2026-10-12	$6.51	$13,241,327,575	10 / 13
2026-10-13	$6.51	$13,241,327,575	10 / 13
2026-10-14	$6.51	$13,247,364,932	10 / 13
2026-10-15	$6.51	$13,247,364,932	10 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	20	3
2026-06-01	20	1
2026-07-01	19	1
2026-08-01	19	3
2026-09-01	18	4
2026-10-01	16	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 12 · prior Jul 13

$90.00 → $77.00-14.4%

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Aug 10

$65.00 → $60.00-7.7%

UBSOct 7 · prior Aug 5

$62.00 → $57.00-8.1%

Industrial Alliance SecuritiesOct 6

$61.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 6 · prior Apr 13

$74.00 → $61.00-17.6%

$0$49.50$99.00

0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow about $750 millionPublished status: Broken
Stable leadership after executive changesQualitative condition
Operating income near $1.18 billionPublished status: Broken
Revenue near $13.2 billionPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Aptiv outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on operational excellence and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is intact, benefiting from recent earnings beats and a completed spin-off, though it faces sector headwinds.

What's priced into Aptiv

The market appears to price in a justified valuation, reflecting the company's fragile earnings quality and elevated risk. APTV is seen as expensive compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that investors are not overly optimistic.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with key priorities, including driving revenue growth and margin expansion. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although industry peers have faced challenges.

What Aptiv hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on strategic priorities. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector bellwethers will influence APTV's trajectory.