Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$126.60-1.69%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Dorman Products grows revenue about 7% to 9% yearly. Profit per share is guided near $7.77 in 2026. The company keeps buying back stock, showing strong cash flow. Its valuation is reasonable with a PE near peers.
Growth may slow below 7% if demand weakens. Profit margins could shrink if costs rise. Debt from recent notes might pressure cash flow.
The price is about 45% above our fair value near $97. Analysts expect roughly 8% revenue growth. We see the valuation as stretched given modest growth and margin risks.
Breaks if: Company stops or reverses buybacks materially
Breaks if: EPS falls below $7.57 in FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to capital return.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, reflecting a balance between expectations and execution quality. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential upside from management's guidance.
Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, with management on track to reaffirm revenue and EPS guidance. However, there is a near-term risk of earnings surprises, as industry peers have recently missed expectations.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate sector challenges. Key factors include inflation trends and performance from sector bellwethers that could influence overall market sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat significantly supports the thesis. There are no new threats impacting the outlook.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain and update full-year 2026 net sales growth guidance reflecting tariff impacts and market conditions.
Reaffirmed or updated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew modestly from $1,048.7M in first half 2025 to $1,073.4M in first half 2026. Guidance for 2026 net sales growth was lowered from 7%-9% to 3%-5% reflecting tariff cost recovery and pricing actions. The trajectory shows management maintaining revenue growth guidance with a downward revision consistent with market conditions.
“We now expect net sales growth of 3% to 5%, diluted EPS in the range of $7.93 to $8.23.”
“We are reaffirming our net sales and earnings guidance for 2026.”
“For 2026, we expect net sales to increase 7% to 9% year-over-year.”
“We now expect net sales growth to be in the range of 7% to 9%.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, DORM's performance will depend on its execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.