Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$125.24-1.76%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dorman Products, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.20 → 9.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	570.21M
EPS	—	2.019
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.21B
EPS	$7.93–$8.23 $8.5–$8.8non-GAAP	8.661
Revenue growth	3%–5%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.32B
EPS	—	9.195

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain disciplined capital allocation including buybacks	A supporting condition in Dorman Products, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Continue share buybacks as announced in 2026.	Intact	Company stops or reverses buybacks materially	Buybacks active (qualitative) No news of buyback stop. Debt issuance and earnings beats reported. Qualitative condition unmet for break. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS near $7.77 in 2026	Profit per share is guided near $7.77 in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $7.57 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.93 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $7.57 and $7.97. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20262.93 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c9861444-67c3-4151-a5ee-107dbb944fb5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain 7% to 9% annual revenue growth	A primary condition in Dorman Products, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 7% to 9% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 0.67% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 7% to 9% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20260.672694 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c9861444-67c3-4151-a5ee-107dbb944fb5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reaffirmed or updated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew modestly from $1,048.7M in first half 2025 to $1,073.4M in first half 2026. Guidance for 2026 net sales growth was lowered from 7%-9% to 3%-5% reflecting tariff cost recovery and pricing actions. The trajectory shows management maintaining revenue growth guidance with a downward revision consistent with market conditions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.20

$9.37 → $9.20 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.32B

$2.41B → $2.32B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.37	$2,406,686,488	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$9.38	$2,406,636,500	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$9.38	$2,406,686,488	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$9.38	$2,406,636,500	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$9.38	$2,406,686,488	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$9.38	$2,406,636,500	8 / 8
2026-07-30	$9.38	$2,406,686,488	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$9.38	$2,406,636,500	8 / 8
2026-08-01	$9.38	$2,406,686,488	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$9.38	$2,406,636,500	8 / 8
2026-08-03	$9.38	$2,406,686,488	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$9.38	$2,406,686,488	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$9.38	$2,406,686,488	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$9.38	$2,406,686,488	5 / 6
2026-08-07	$9.32	$2,336,435,362	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$9.32	$2,336,435,380	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$9.32	$2,336,435,380	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$9.32	$2,336,435,362	5 / 6
2026-08-11	$9.31	$2,325,398,750	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$9.32	$2,336,435,362	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$9.32	$2,336,435,362	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$9.32	$2,336,435,362	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$9.32	$2,336,435,362	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$9.32	$2,336,435,362	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$9.32	$2,336,435,362	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$9.32	$2,336,435,362	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$9.32	$2,336,435,362	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$9.29	$2,318,148,750	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$9.24	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$9.24	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$9.24	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$9.24	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$9.24	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$9.24	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$9.24	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$9.24	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$9.24	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$9.24	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$9.24	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$9.24	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$9.20	$2,318,650,375	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$9.20	$2,318,675,375	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$9.20	$2,318,675,375	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$9.20	$2,318,675,375	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$9.20	$2,318,675,375	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$9.20	$2,318,675,375	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$9.20	$2,318,675,375	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$9.20	$2,318,675,375	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$9.20	$2,318,675,375	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$9.20	$2,318,675,375	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$9.20	$2,318,675,375	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$9.20	$2,318,675,375	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	0
2026-06-01	8	0
2026-07-01	8	0
2026-08-01	8	1
2026-09-01	7	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS near $7.77 in 2026Diluted EPS: $2.93 per share
Sustain 7% to 9% annual revenue growthRevenue growth: 0.67%

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dorman Products, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

DORM is a steady operating-business thesis with recent financial performance rated strong, rather than a turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased to medium and the risk level is elevated.

What's priced into Dorman Products, Inc.

Valuation is broadly aligned with the evidence snapshot, and the expectations gap is slightly negative. DORM trades at a modest premium to peers; the snapshot says this is justified, with low overall fragility rather than a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: first-half diluted EPS rose, and management raised its 2026 EPS guidance, while lowering its net sales growth guidance to 3%-5%. Management has reaffirmed or updated its full-year guidance consistently and repurchased shares, but erratic recent earnings surprises and a downward surprise trend remain risks.

What Dorman Products, Inc. hinges on

The near-term test is whether management can maintain its updated guidance after recently raising EPS expectations; a reversal and guidance cut would damage credibility. Over the multi-year view, the setup also depends on sector signals: continued strength from GPC, BWA, and APTV could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.