Garrett Motion, Inc. (GTX)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$21.55-2.05%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Garrett Motion, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	921.43M
EPS	—	0.439
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$3.7B–$3.9BGAAP	3.82B
EPS	—	1.946
Free cash flow	$385M–$475Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating cash flow	$435M–$525MGAAP	—
Operating income	-$8M–-$8M	—
Revenue growth (constant currency)	1%–7%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.95B
EPS	—	2.18

What the Thesis Depends On

5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow of at least $405 million in 2026	Profit and free cash flow targets for 2026 are $1.6 EPS and $405 million FCF.	Improving	Free cash flow falls below $355 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $128M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $405 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026128,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches $5 billion by 2030	A primary condition in Garrett Motion, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $5 billion.	Intact	Revenue fails to trend toward $5 billion by 2030	Revenue: $976M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026976,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e666c1c6-ec78-45e6-a1b2-62ed7a777416. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterated the plan to reach approximately $5 billion in sales by 2030. While current revenue is below this target, the company is maintaining this long-term growth goal. The trajectory is mixed given the long horizon and current revenue levels. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Stable leadership and strategic execution	A supporting condition in Garrett Motion, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material leadership losses impacting strategy.	Intact	Loss of key executives leads to strategy disruption	No material leadership losses David Crompton appointed to Board; no key executive departures reported; analysts raised price targets on growth outlook. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS of at least $1.6 in 2026	A primary condition in Garrett Motion, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.6 per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.48 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.53 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.6 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.53 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e666c1c6-ec78-45e6-a1b2-62ed7a777416. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $3.6 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Garrett Motion, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.6 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $3.6 billion in FY26	Revenue: $976M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.6 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026976,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e666c1c6-ec78-45e6-a1b2-62ed7a777416. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $878 million in 2025-Q1 to $985 million in 2026-Q1 and $976 million in 2026-Q2. Management raised the full-year 2026 net sales outlook from $3.6-$3.9 billion in 2025-Q4 to $3.7-$3.9 billion in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with stated targets. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$3.95B

$3.93B → $3.95B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$3,933,621,333	3 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$3,924,771,330	3 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$3,924,771,330	3 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$3,924,771,333	3 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$3,924,771,330	3 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$3,924,771,330	3 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$3,917,271,330	3 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$3,976,137,810	3 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$3,976,078,695	3 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$3,988,078,695	3 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$3,988,137,810	3 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$3,988,137,810	3 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$3,992,304,480	3 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$3,992,304,480	3 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$3,992,245,362	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$3,992,304,480	3 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$3,992,304,480	3 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$3,992,304,480	3 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$4,013,768,940	3 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$3,992,245,362	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$3,992,245,362	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$3,992,245,362	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$3,992,245,362	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$3,992,245,362	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$3,992,245,362	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$3,992,245,362	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$4,013,709,820	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$4,009,908,084	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$4,009,908,084	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$4,009,908,084	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$3,998,608,084	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$3,998,608,084	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$3,998,608,084	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$3,998,608,084	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$3,984,774,750	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$3,984,774,750	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$3,984,774,750	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$3,984,774,750	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$3,984,774,750	3 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$3,984,774,750	3 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$3,964,608,084	3 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$3,964,608,084	3 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$3,964,608,084	3 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$3,964,608,084	3 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$3,953,841,417	3 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$3,953,841,417	3 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$3,953,841,417	3 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$3,953,841,417	3 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$3,953,841,417	3 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	2
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	5	2
2026-08-01	5	1
2026-09-01	5	1
2026-10-01	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow of at least $405 million in 2026Free cash flow: $128M
Revenue reaches $5 billion by 2030Revenue: $976M
EPS of at least $1.6 in 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue grows to at least $3.6 billion in 2026Revenue: $976M

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-40.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Garrett Motion, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

GTX is a growth-oriented industrial business with recent financial performance rated strong, rather than a proven, low-risk compounder. Its three-to-six-month thesis is intact, but risk has risen from moderate to elevated.

What's priced into Garrett Motion, Inc.

The evidence describes GTX as cheap versus peers, with the valuation model showing a 0.92 premium-versus-peer measure and a negative 0.16 expectations gap. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not suggest that the market is assuming an unusually demanding setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has grown across the reported quarters, and management raised its 2026 net sales outlook to $3.7-$3.9 billion. Lower interest expense and loan repricing support capital-cost reduction, though progress on the longer-term $5 billion revenue goal is mixed. Risk is elevated, and recent peer misses plus a past deep miss make execution and guidance credibility important.

What Garrett Motion, Inc. hinges on

Over the next year, a key test is whether GTX sustains its raised guidance; a reversal and cut would damage confidence in management’s outlook. Sector conditions also matter: continued strong results and higher guidance from GPC, BWA, and APTV would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support. Over the multi-year view, progress toward the 2030 revenue goal remains uncertain.