Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$106.32-2.97%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Allison Transmission Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.95 → 10.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.5B
EPS	—	2.35
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$5.8B–$6B	5.94B
EPS	—	8.119
Capital expenditure	$260M–$280M	—
EBITDA	$1.47B–$1.58Bnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$745M–$865Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating cash flow	$1.03B–$1.13B	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.2B
EPS	—	10.755

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures near $305 million in 2026	The company targets free cash flow near $730 million, showing financial strength.	Broken	Capital expenditures fall below $295M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $31M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$305M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202631,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance was $295-$315 million in 2026-Q1 and narrowed to $260-$280 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting inclusion of one-time integration costs. Management maintains disciplined capex guidance, showing delivering on capital allocation priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Adjusted free cash flow near $730 million in 2026	The company targets free cash flow near $730 million, showing financial strength.	Recovered	Free cash flow falls below $655M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reiterated or increased in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted free cash flow guidance rose from $655-$805 million in 2026-Q1 to $745-$865 million in 2026-Q2. Actual adjusted free cash flow was $281 million in 2026-Q2, up 84% year over year, indicating delivering progress toward full year target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain stable guidance and execution amid macro uncertainties	A supporting condition in Allison Transmission Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No further guidance cuts or earnings misses in FY26.	Recovered	Additional guidance cuts or earnings misses occur in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year 2026 revenue near $5.9 billion	A primary condition in Allison Transmission Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$5.9B.	Recovered	Revenue falls below $5.57B in FY26	Revenue: $1.566B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.9B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20261,566,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a029dccc-ddfa-441a-8691-f2b3d4f0b9fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reaffirmed or increased in 3 of last 3 quarters. Full year 2026 consolidated net sales guidance rose from $5.575-$5.925 billion in 2026-Q1 to $5.8-$6.0 billion in 2026-Q2. This reflects management's response to improving market conditions and second quarter results, showing delivering trajectory on revenue guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.76

$11.50 → $10.76 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.20B

$6.07B → $6.20B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.50	$6,070,947,490	7 / 10
2026-07-25	$11.40	$6,070,947,490	8 / 10
2026-07-26	$11.40	$6,070,947,490	8 / 10
2026-07-27	$10.84	$6,077,033,186	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$10.84	$6,077,033,186	7 / 8
2026-07-29	$11.40	$6,070,947,490	8 / 10
2026-07-30	$11.40	$6,070,947,490	8 / 10
2026-07-31	$11.40	$6,070,947,490	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$11.40	$6,070,947,490	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$11.40	$6,070,947,490	8 / 10
2026-08-03	$10.84	$6,077,033,186	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$11.40	$6,070,947,490	8 / 10
2026-08-05	$11.40	$6,070,947,490	8 / 10
2026-08-06	$11.41	$6,079,157,370	8 / 10
2026-08-07	$10.72	$6,130,513,022	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$11.22	$6,143,406,990	7 / 10
2026-08-09	$11.22	$6,143,406,990	7 / 10
2026-08-10	$11.22	$6,143,406,990	7 / 10
2026-08-11	$11.20	$6,143,406,990	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$11.35	$6,161,906,990	8 / 10
2026-08-13	$11.35	$6,161,906,990	8 / 10
2026-08-14	$10.72	$6,130,513,022	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$10.72	$6,130,513,022	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$10.72	$6,130,513,022	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$10.72	$6,130,513,022	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$10.72	$6,130,513,022	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$10.72	$6,130,513,022	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$10.72	$6,130,513,022	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$10.95	$6,214,533,490	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$10.95	$6,214,533,490	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$10.95	$6,214,533,490	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$10.95	$6,214,533,490	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$10.95	$6,214,533,490	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$10.95	$6,214,533,490	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$10.95	$6,214,533,490	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$10.95	$6,214,503,490	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$10.90	$6,196,265,628	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$10.90	$6,196,265,628	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$10.90	$6,196,265,628	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$10.90	$6,196,265,628	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$10.90	$6,196,265,628	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$10.90	$6,196,265,628	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$10.90	$6,196,265,628	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$10.90	$6,196,265,628	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$10.81	$6,193,125,003	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$10.81	$6,193,125,003	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$10.81	$6,193,125,003	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$10.81	$6,193,125,003	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$10.81	$6,193,125,003	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$10.81	$6,193,125,003	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$10.75	$6,193,117,982	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$10.75	$6,193,117,982	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$10.75	$6,193,117,982	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$10.75	$6,193,117,982	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$10.75	$6,193,117,982	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$10.76	$6,196,824,892	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$10.76	$6,196,824,892	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$10.76	$6,196,824,892	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$10.76	$6,196,824,892	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$10.76	$6,196,824,892	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$10.76	$6,196,824,892	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$10.76	$6,196,824,892	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$10.76	$6,196,824,892	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$10.76	$6,196,824,892	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$10.76	$6,196,824,892	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$10.76	$6,196,824,892	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	6	1
2026-06-01	4	6	1
2026-07-01	3	6	1
2026-08-01	4	6	1
2026-09-01	4	6	1
2026-10-01	6	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 12

$135.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 8

$120.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$74.25$148.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures near $305 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Adjusted free cash flow near $730 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain stable guidance and execution amid macro uncertaintiesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Full year 2026 revenue near $5.9 billionRevenue: $1.566B

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a business with a currently improving operating picture, rather than a turnaround or a clearly distressed case. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong, but confidence is medium and management execution is mixed on integrating the Off-Highway unit.

What's priced into Allison Transmission Holdings Inc

Valuation is broadly aligned with expectations, and the evidence labels what is priced in as justified. ALSN trades at a modest premium to peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral. The main concern in the priced-in evidence is weak execution quality, not a combination of expensive valuation and high fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue momentum has improved: management raised 2026 consolidated sales guidance in the second quarter, after reaffirming or increasing it in each of the last three quarters. Integration of the Off-Highway business is progressing, though its status is mixed, and capital expenditure guidance has narrowed. Recent results are strong overall, but the snapshot also flags recent misses across the company and peers, so guidance delivery remains important.

What Allison Transmission Holdings Inc hinges on

The multi-year view depends partly on continued delivery against the raised revenue guidance and on capturing benefits from integrating the Off-Highway unit. A reversal into guidance cuts would damage management credibility, while earnings strength from sector bellwethers GPC, BWA, and APTV could support the broader sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.