Fox Factory (FOXF)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.07-1.70%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Fox Factory’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-34.6% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.86 → 1.22 EPS · FY ending Jan 2, 2028 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$355M–$380M	—
EBITDA	$46M–$54Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	297.33M
EPS	—	0.102
EBITDA	$23M–$29Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.42B–$1.47B	1.36B
EPS	—	0.948
EBITDA	$154M–$164Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.27B
EPS	—	1.218

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross profit maintains or improves	A supporting condition in Fox Factory's published investment case. The stated target is >=106 million USD.	Improving	gross profit falls below 100 million USD next year	Gross profit: $109.693M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=106 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026109,693,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: facd77ee-1046-4372-87a1-81a01ad3f9ae. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to positive territory	Fox Factory is improving operating income, up to $5.95M in Q1 2026 from a large loss last year.	Improving	operating income falls below 0 million USD next year	Operating income: $17.507M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.95 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202617,507,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: facd77ee-1046-4372-87a1-81a01ad3f9ae. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows through market expansion and innovation	The company is focused on cost management and market expansion.	Intact	annual revenue falls below 1.33 billion USD in FY26	Revenue: $358.122M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.37 billion USD annual revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026358,122,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: facd77ee-1046-4372-87a1-81a01ad3f9ae. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$1.22

Unavailable → $1.22 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.27B

$1.44B → $1.27B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,437,445,004	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,482,846,125	4 / 5
2026-09-17	$1.86	$1,493,912,791	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$1.86	$1,493,912,791	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$1.86	$1,493,912,791	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$1.86	$1,493,912,791	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$1.86	$1,493,912,791	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$1.86	$1,493,912,791	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$1.86	$1,493,912,791	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$1.86	$1,493,912,791	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$1.86	$1,493,912,791	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$1.86	$1,493,912,791	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$1.86	$1,493,912,791	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$1.86	$1,493,912,791	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$1.82	$1,463,829,458	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$1.82	$1,463,829,458	5 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,463,129,458	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	$1.31	$1,307,033,236	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$1.31	$1,307,033,236	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$1.22	$1,270,860,883	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$1.22	$1,270,860,883	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	4	0
2026-06-01	2	4	1
2026-07-01	2	3	1
2026-08-01	2	3	1
2026-09-01	2	3	1
2026-10-01	2	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Roth CapitalOct 19 · prior May 8

$20.00 → $17.00-15.0%

Stifel NicolausSep 30 · prior Apr 16

$24.00 → $25.00+4.2%

$0$13.75$27.50

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross profit maintains or improvesGross profit: $109.693M
Operating income improves to positive territoryOperating income: $17.507M
Revenue grows through market expansion and innovationRevenue: $358.122M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Fox Factory outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a turnaround-oriented industrial business rather than a proven durable compounder, with loss-making earnings quality and volatile management. The thesis is intact, and the latest signal shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into Fox Factory

FOXF trades at a premium to peers, while the valuation evidence says expectations and fundamentals are broadly aligned rather than showing a clear expectations gap. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with no fragility concerns flagged; however, current losses limit what can be concluded about value.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, reported results have been neutral overall, with a recent earnings beat and adjusted EBITDA rising from the first to the second quarter of 2026. Cost savings are showing early progress, but higher input costs have offset some gains, and the second-quarter figure included tariff refunds. Debt has declined modestly, while a CEO transition and the possibility of guidance cuts remain risks.

What Fox Factory hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on delivering the stated fiscal 2026 cost savings, improving earnings quality, and making further progress on debt and portfolio actions. Near term, guidance on the next call is a key swing factor, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers could strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.