Fox Factory (FOXF)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$19.56-3.46%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Fox Factory is improving operating income, up to $5.95M in Q1 2026 from a large loss last year. Revenue grew 3.9% year over year to $368.66M in Q1 2026. The company is focused on cost management and market expansion. These steps support a recovery from prior losses.
Gross profit declined slightly to $106.39M in Q1 2026, showing weak margin improvement. The sector faces headwinds and the company is loss-making with fragile quality. Revenue growth is slow and guidance is soft, risking stalled recovery.
The price is about 9% below our fair value near $19, reflecting modest 1.4% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 15% below the Street median, indicating cautious optimism. The market prices in a slow recovery but not a strong turnaround.
Breaks if: gross profit falls below 100 million USD next year
Breaks if: operating income falls below 0 million USD next year
annual revenue falls below 1.33 billion USD in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story as FOXF works to improve profitability through cost-saving measures and divestitures. The current thesis state is mixed, with recent performance showing some recovery but still facing significant risks.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility, as indicated by the unjustified valuation premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap of 0.28, suggesting that the market may not fully reflect the potential for improvement in FOXF's fundamentals.
Management's focus on executing a profit optimization plan and divesting non-core assets may lead to gradual improvements in earnings quality. However, elevated risks remain, particularly given the company's recent history of misses and the current sector headwinds.
The long-term thesis hinges on FOXF's ability to successfully implement its cost-saving strategies and the performance of key sector bellwethers. Additionally, any changes in economic conditions, such as inflation rates, could significantly impact the company's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, FOXF's performance will depend on its execution of strategic initiatives and external economic factors. Not investment advice.