Reading EXPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXPI free→Reading EXPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXPI free→NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, EXPI is typical. There is no valuation input available. The read is not applicable. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted -5.92x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.09. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$153.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$422.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,123.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if the company can maintain growth after the NextHome acquisition.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue guidance confirmed within the range of $1.36 billion to $1.45 billion.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue guidance falls below $1.36 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EXPI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On May 11, 2026, eXp World Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise su…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EXPI eXp World Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | — | elevated |
CBRE CBRE Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSGP CoStar Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
COMP Compass, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support business growth.
Why it matters: Better cash flow would show stronger financial health and ability to invest in growth.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations rises by over 10% from the last quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations improves by less than 10% or declines.
Why it matters: If eXp performs better than peers, it may indicate a stronger position in a maturing market.
Confirms:eXp does better than its peers in the next quarter.
Disproves:eXp's performance lags behind the average performance of its peers over the next quarter.
Why it matters: This metric shows if the company is making more money after recent changes.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 reported within the range of $16 million to $21 million.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 was below $16 million.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is running more efficiently and is healthier.
Confirms:Q2 2026 operational cash flow was above $9.6 million.
Disproves:Operational cash flow was less than $9.6 million.
Why it matters: This would show that eXp is gaining momentum in a slowing sector. It could signal a recovery in growth rates.
Confirms:Q1 revenue growth reported above 7% year over year.
Disproves:Q1 revenue growth reported below 7% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in NPS shows better agent satisfaction, crucial for retention and growth.
Confirms:NPS improves to above 67 in the next quarter.
Disproves:NPS declines further below 67.
Why it matters: If the real estate sector shows renewed growth, it could benefit eXp World Holdings. This affects overall market sentiment.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains below 0% year over year.
Regulation FD Disclosure. As previously disclosed, eXp World Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) and its subsidiaries, eXp Realty, LLC, eXp Realty of California, Inc., eXp Realty of Southern California, Inc., eXp Realty of Greater Los Angeles, Inc., and eXp Realty of Northern California, Inc., entered into a definitive settlement agreement on December 9, 2024 (the “Settlement Agreement”) to resolve on a nationwide basis the pending class action lawsuit brought by 1925 Hooper LLC, et al. (United…
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On February 24, 2026, eXp World Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange…