Reading ELF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ELF free→Reading ELF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ELF free→NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. The outlook hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could lead to a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $66.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $67 the market pays 21× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 36× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $53 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $50–$100. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 26% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 40%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 8.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.02 → $0.73 (-28.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 12 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 61% of analysts rate Buy.
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 33.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -89.6% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$305.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$613.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,620.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in e.l.f. Beauty's growth momentum after strong recent performance.
Confirms:Q2 net sales growth reported below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth reported above 14% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Expand market presence
Global expansion tests premium growth story.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Securities and Exchange Commission’s rules and regulations, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$50.00 – $100.00 (median $66.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-06-16
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ELF e.l.f. Beauty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | full | elevated |
USFD US Foods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFGC Performance Food Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | full | moderate |
COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Continue to grow market presence across brands, categories, and geographies.
Focus on improving profitability through cost management and operational efficiency.
Drive growth through innovation in product offerings and brand development.
Why it matters: A drop in the EBITDA margin could indicate rising costs are outpacing sales growth.
Confirms:EBITDA margin is under 20%.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 20%.
Why it matters: Strong growth from rhode would confirm the brand's market acceptance and boost overall sales.
Confirms:Rhode brand sales growth reported above 40% year over year.
Disproves:Rhode brand sales growth reported below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows that the company is making more money.
Confirms:Operating income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Operating income growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Innovation can make products more appealing and help gain market share.
Confirms one read:New product launches show clear differences and boost sales.
Confirms the other:New products fail to gain traction or show no sales impact.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is stable or declining, it shows market expansion is hard.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth stabilizes or grows year over year above 5%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth declines year over year below 5%.
Why it matters: Changes in consumer spending can impact sales and growth potential.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows an increase in consumer spending above 3%.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline in consumer spending below 0%.
Why it matters: If SG&A grows too fast, it may hurt profits. This can lower investor trust.
Confirms:SG&A expenses reported growing faster than 20% year over year.
Disproves:SG&A expenses reported growing at or below 15% year over year.
Advances: Expand market presence
Partnership drives brand reach and sales.
Advances: Enhance profitability
Discusses guidance and organic sales trends.
Advances: Expand market presence
Q4 revenue growth of 35% is significant.
Advances: Enhance profitability
Earnings beat expectations, indicating profitability.
Threatens: Enhance profitability
Reversing tariff price increases amid sales drop.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 12, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Matthew Farrell to the Board as a Class I director, effective as of February 12, 2026. Mr. Farrell will stand for election to the Board at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders of the Company. Mr. Farrell served as the Chief Executive Offic…
of Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Securities and Exchange Commission’s rules and regulations, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.