e.l.f. Beauty (ELF)

NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$114.24-0.65%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge e.l.f. Beauty’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.85 → 3.90 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	537.29M
EPS	—	0.862
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$1.94B–$1.97B	1.98B
EPS	$3.5–$3.55non-GAAP	3.656
EBITDA	$401M–$407Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.16B
EPS	—	3.902

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS about $3.29 in fiscal 2027	Earnings per share guidance is about $3.29 for fiscal 2027.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $3.05 in FY27	Diluted EPS: $1.12 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.29. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261.12 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c85ec3b0-4bb6-4008-b8d7-f7e9e7881302. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Grow market presence across brands and geographies	The company expands its market with new brands and channels.	Intact	Sales growth stalls or declines in key channels next year	30 consecutive growth quarters vs target of sustained growth News highlights 30th growth quarter, Q1 2027 beat, and strong sales data from Canaccord tracker. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted EBITDA grows at least 13% year over year	Profit rose with adjusted EBITDA up 13% to $335 million.	Under Pressure	EBITDA growth falls below 10% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net sales grow to about $1.85 billion in fiscal 2027	Beauty grew sales 25% to $1.64 billion in fiscal 2026.	Intact	revenue falls below $1.63B in FY27	Revenue: $479.373M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.85B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026479,373,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c85ec3b0-4bb6-4008-b8d7-f7e9e7881302. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.90

$3.66 → $3.90 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.16B

$2.00B → $2.16B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.66	$2,000,542,409	10 / 14
2026-07-25	$3.67	$1,998,667,430	17 / 17
2026-07-26	$3.67	$1,998,667,430	17 / 17
2026-07-27	$3.66	$2,000,543,296	10 / 14
2026-07-28	$3.67	$1,998,667,430	17 / 17
2026-07-29	$3.66	$2,001,543,296	10 / 14
2026-07-30	$3.67	$1,999,726,260	17 / 17
2026-07-31	$3.67	$1,999,726,260	17 / 17
2026-08-01	$3.66	$2,001,543,296	10 / 14
2026-08-02	$3.67	$1,999,726,260	17 / 17
2026-08-03	$3.66	$2,001,543,318	10 / 14
2026-08-04	$3.68	$2,000,287,430	17 / 17
2026-08-05	$3.66	$2,001,543,318	10 / 14
2026-08-06	$3.69	$2,006,463,900	17 / 17
2026-08-07	$3.82	$2,112,572,086	10 / 14
2026-08-08	$3.84	$2,117,313,600	16 / 17
2026-08-09	$3.84	$2,116,835,360	17 / 17
2026-08-10	$3.82	$2,112,572,086	10 / 14
2026-08-11	$3.82	$2,112,572,086	10 / 14
2026-08-12	$3.84	$2,123,317,720	17 / 17
2026-08-13	$3.82	$2,112,572,086	10 / 14
2026-08-14	$3.82	$2,112,572,086	10 / 14
2026-08-15	$3.82	$2,112,572,086	10 / 14
2026-08-16	$3.82	$2,112,572,086	10 / 14
2026-08-17	$3.82	$2,112,572,086	10 / 14
2026-08-18	$3.82	$2,112,572,086	10 / 14
2026-08-19	$3.82	$2,112,572,086	10 / 14
2026-08-20	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	10 / 14
2026-08-21	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	10 / 14
2026-08-22	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-08-23	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-08-24	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-08-25	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-08-26	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-08-27	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-08-28	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-08-29	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-08-30	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-08-31	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-09-01	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-09-02	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-09-03	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-09-04	$3.82	$2,124,869,338	11 / 15
2026-09-05	$3.82	$2,124,894,290	11 / 15
2026-09-06	$3.82	$2,124,894,290	11 / 15
2026-09-07	$3.82	$2,124,894,290	11 / 15
2026-09-08	$3.82	$2,124,894,290	11 / 15
2026-09-09	$3.82	$2,124,894,290	11 / 15
2026-09-10	$3.82	$2,124,894,290	11 / 15
2026-09-11	$3.82	$2,124,894,290	11 / 15
2026-09-12	$3.82	$2,124,894,290	11 / 15
2026-09-13	$3.82	$2,124,894,290	11 / 15
2026-09-14	$3.82	$2,124,894,290	11 / 15
2026-09-15	$3.82	$2,124,894,290	11 / 15
2026-09-16	$3.84	$2,128,731,760	11 / 15
2026-09-17	$3.84	$2,128,731,760	11 / 15
2026-09-18	$3.84	$2,128,731,760	11 / 15
2026-09-19	$3.84	$2,128,731,760	11 / 15
2026-09-20	$3.85	$2,133,787,406	11 / 15
2026-09-21	$3.85	$2,133,787,406	11 / 15
2026-09-22	$3.85	$2,133,787,406	11 / 15
2026-09-23	$3.85	$2,133,787,406	11 / 15
2026-09-24	$3.85	$2,133,787,406	11 / 15
2026-09-25	$3.85	$2,133,787,406	11 / 15
2026-09-26	$3.85	$2,133,787,406	11 / 15
2026-09-27	$3.85	$2,133,787,406	11 / 15
2026-09-28	$3.85	$2,133,787,406	11 / 15
2026-09-29	$3.85	$2,133,787,406	11 / 15
2026-09-30	$3.85	$2,133,787,406	11 / 15
2026-10-01	$3.85	$2,133,777,690	11 / 14
2026-10-02	$3.86	$2,138,095,337	11 / 14
2026-10-03	$3.86	$2,138,095,337	11 / 14
2026-10-04	$3.86	$2,138,095,337	11 / 14
2026-10-05	$3.86	$2,138,095,337	11 / 14
2026-10-06	$3.86	$2,138,895,278	11 / 14
2026-10-07	$3.86	$2,138,895,278	11 / 14
2026-10-08	$3.86	$2,138,895,278	11 / 14
2026-10-09	$3.86	$2,138,895,278	11 / 14
2026-10-10	$3.86	$2,138,895,278	11 / 14
2026-10-11	$3.86	$2,138,895,278	11 / 14
2026-10-12	$3.86	$2,138,895,278	11 / 14
2026-10-13	$3.86	$2,138,895,278	11 / 14
2026-10-14	$3.86	$2,138,895,278	11 / 14
2026-10-15	$3.86	$2,138,895,278	11 / 14
2026-10-16	$3.88	$2,149,456,436	11 / 14
2026-10-17	$3.88	$2,149,456,436	11 / 14
2026-10-18	$3.88	$2,149,462,319	11 / 14
2026-10-19	$3.88	$2,149,462,319	11 / 14
2026-10-20	$3.88	$2,149,462,319	11 / 14
2026-10-21	$3.89	$2,153,217,405	11 / 14
2026-10-22	$3.90	$2,157,514,170	11 / 14
2026-10-23	$3.90	$2,157,514,170	11 / 14
2026-10-24	$3.90	$2,157,514,170	11 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	6
2026-06-01	11	7
2026-07-01	11	7
2026-08-01	12	7
2026-09-01	12	6
2026-10-01	12	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Deutsche BankOct 21 · prior Jun 16

$64.00 → $105.00+64.1%

UBSOct 15 · prior May 21

$80.00 → $116.00+45.0%

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior May 21

$59.00 → $103.00+74.6%

Robert W. BairdOct 7 · prior Aug 6

$105.00 → $120.00+14.3%

Raymond JamesOct 1 · prior Jul 14

$87.00 → $117.00+34.5%

$0$66.00$132.00

5 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS about $3.29 in fiscal 2027Published status: Under Pressure
Adjusted EBITDA grows at least 13% year over yearPublished status: Under Pressure
Net sales grow to about $1.85 billion in fiscal 2027Revenue: $479.373M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

e.l.f. Beauty outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ELF is a growth business whose long-term thesis depends on expanding its brands and sustaining rapid sales growth. Management is on track with its stated priorities, but the thesis state is watch and the recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into e.l.f. Beauty

ELF is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and an expectations gap that is slightly negative. The premium appears justified in the evidence, but confidence in that assessment is low, so the valuation leaves little room for execution to weaken.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s raised fiscal 2027 outlook and recent growth in sales and adjusted earnings support continued progress, while recent earnings beats are a positive signal. Still, recent performance sits below its industry cohort, earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated; a guidance reversal would also damage credibility.

What e.l.f. Beauty hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether sales growth and profitability continue to support management’s raised outlook, alongside expansion of brands such as rhode and Naturium. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on the business outlook, while continued earnings strength from sector peers could support the broader sector backdrop.