Reading DWSN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DWSN free→Reading DWSN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DWSN free→NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, DWSN is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 65% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.48 DWSN trades at 35× p/e — 1.7× the 21× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $2.71 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 65% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 70%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$490.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$975.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,552.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision on June 17 could affect interest rates and investor sentiment. This is crucial for companies in the energy sector.
Confirms one read:FOMC decision leads to a positive market reaction with rising stock prices.
Confirms the other:FOMC decision leads to a negative market reaction with falling stock prices.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DWSN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, Dawson Geophysical Company (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its preliminary and unaudited financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Limitation on Incorporation by Reference. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DWSN Dawson Geophysical Co | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | high |
SLB Schlumberger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BKR Baker Hughes | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAL Halliburton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve consistent revenue growth each quarter.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $9.85M in 2025-Q2 to $36.7M in 2026-Q1, indicating strong growth. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated priority of quarter-over-quarter revenue increases.
“We expect our revenue to continue to increase quarter-over-quarter.”
“We expect our revenue to continue to increase in the third quarter due to our strong backlog.”
“We expect our revenue to increase in the United States in the second quarter due to our strong backlog.”
Management is focused on sustaining positive net income.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income increased from $569,000 in 2025-Q4 to $7.66M in 2026-Q1, showing significant improvement. Management is delivering on its priority to maintain positive net income.
“Net income was $7.66 million for the first quarter of 2026.”
“Net income was $569,000 for the fourth quarter of 2025.”
The company has set a capital budget of $3 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a capital budget of $3 million for 2026. This is a new priority, and its impact on financials will be observed in future quarters.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it could signal a positive shift for Dawson Geophysical. This may help the company recover from its recent valuation drop.
Confirms:Energy sector revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Disproves:Energy sector revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 30, 2026, Dawson Geophysical Company (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its preliminary and unaudited financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Limitation on Incorporation by Reference. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” f…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 12, 2025, Dawson Geophysical Company (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its preliminary and unaudited financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Limitation on Incorporation by Reference. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for pur…
Entry Into Material Definitive Agreement On October 31, 2025, Dawson Geophysical Company (the “ Company ”) and Dawson Operating LLC, a Texas limited liability company and a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“ Dawson Operating ” and together with the Company, the “ Borrowers ”), entered into a Revolving Credit Note (the “ Revolving Credit Note ”) in favor of Equify Financial, as lender (the “ Lender ”). Pursuant to the Revolving Credit Note, the Borrowers, jointly and severally, may,…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information provided in
“The Company's Board of Directors approved a capital budget of $3 million for 2026.”