Reading DRS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DRS free→Reading DRS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DRS free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the company's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $46.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $47 DRS trades at 39× p/e, in line with its 38× p/e peer median. Our $41 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $47–$59. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 13% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.51x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.27 (+2.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 3 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$186.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$371.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,248.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help DRS's performance. A stronger sector supports better business prospects.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth shows improvement, moving above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
E-Drive and Golden Dome Initiative enhance product offerings.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operation and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Leonardo DRS, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a news release reporting, among other things, its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The Company’s management will discuss operations and financial results in an earnings conference call beginning at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on May 5, 2026. A live audio broadcast of the conference call along wi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$47.00 – $59.00 (median $54.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DRS Leonardo DRS Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has raised the revenue guidance for 2026 to a range of $3,900 million to $3,975 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $3,850 million - $3,950 million in 2025-Q4 to $3,900 million - $3,975 million in 2026-Q1. This indicates a positive trajectory in management's growth expectations.
“Raises 2026 guidance across key metrics.”
“Leonardo DRS is initiating 2026 guidance as specified in the table below: Measure 2026 Guidance Revenue $3,850 million - $3,950 million.”
The company continues to maintain a dividend per share of $0.09.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share has consistently remained at $0.09 from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q1, indicating stability in capital allocation strategy.
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities, which has been negative in recent quarters.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was negative $28 million in 2025-Q2 and worsened to negative $66 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in improving cash flow.
New initiatives enhance product offerings and market position.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Retirement of Proxy Holder Director On March 6, 2026, David W. Carey informed the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Leonardo DRS, Inc. (the “Company”) of his decision to retire from the Board at the end of his proxy holder term on March 31, 2026. Mr. Carey’s decision is not due to any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to its operations, policies, or…
Results of Operation and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, Leonardo DRS, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a news release reporting, among other things, its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 and providing its financial outlook for full year 2026. A copy of the news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The Company’s management will discuss operations and financial results in a previously announced earnings conference call beginnin…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Credit Agreement On January 28, 2026, Leonardo DRS, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), and certain direct and indirect U.S. subsidiaries of the Company (the “Guarantors”) entered into a credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) by and among the Company, as borrower, the Guarantors, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (“JPMorgan”), as Administrative Agent and Swing Line Lender, and the other lenders party thereto. The Credit Agreement provides for a…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in
“Dividend per share remains at $0.09.”
“Dividend per share is $0.09.”
“Dividend per share is $0.09.”
“Cash from operating activities was negative $66 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was negative $28 million.”