Reading DG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DG free→Reading DG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DG free→NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $113.75. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $114 DG trades at 16× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $152 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $109–$170. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.24x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.99 → $2.00 (+0.1% / 30d). 8 raised, 6 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 11 maintained. 39% of analysts rate Buy.
12 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.6% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$144.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$319.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,456.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is on track to meet its sales and profit goals.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) reported at or above $7.10.
Confirms the other:EPS reported below $7.10.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase net sales by 3.7% to 4.2% in fiscal 2026
Profitable delivery business supports sales growth objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
above is incorporated herein by reference. The news release also: · sets forth statements regarding, among other things, the Company’s fiscal year 2026 outlook, as well as the Company’s planned conference call to discuss the reported financial results, the Company’s fiscal year 2026 outlook, and certain other matters; and · announces that on June 1, 2026, the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.59 per share on the Company’s outstanding common stock payable on or before July 21, 202…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$109.00 – $170.00 (median $139.00) · 21 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DG Dollar General | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
WMT Walmart | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | low |
PG Procter & Gamble | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim to grow net sales by 3.7% to 4.2% for the fiscal year ending January 29, 2027.
Plan to keep capital expenditures within the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion for fiscal 2026.
Target diluted EPS in the range of $7.10 to $7.35 for the fiscal year ending January 29, 2027.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to meeting the annual sales targets. A miss could signal deeper issues.
Confirms:Same-store sales growth reported below 2.2% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Same-store sales growth reported above 2.7% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key for Dollar General's performance. Meeting this target shows strong demand.
Confirms:Q2 net sales growth reported between 3.7% and 4.2%.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth falls below 3.7%.
Why it matters: The new CEO's vision could change growth strategies and impact stock performance.
Confirms one read:Positive strategic changes announced by new CEO Jerry W. 'JJ' Fleeman Jr. after January 1, 2027.
Confirms the other:There are no changes in strategy. There is no bad feedback from stakeholders after the transition.
Why it matters: More spending might mean poor management. This can hurt profits.
Confirms:Spending was above $1.5 billion for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Spending was between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. Meeting this target is crucial.
Confirms:EPS reported between $7.10 and $7.35.
Disproves:EPS reported below $7.10.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to meeting the company's financial goals for the year.
Confirms:Sales growth reported at or above 3.7% for the fiscal year.
Disproves:Sales growth reported below 3.7% for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. A miss could raise concerns about future growth.
Confirms:Diluted EPS reported below $7.10 for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Diluted EPS reported above $7.35 for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Inflation data affects how much people spend. It can change Dollar General's sales.
Confirms one read:CPI and PPI reports show inflation easing.
Confirms the other:CPI and PPI reports show inflation is rising a lot.
Advances: Increase net sales by 3.7% to 4.2% in fiscal 2026
Sales uptick supports growth objective amid affordability trend.
Increased competition may hinder sales growth objectives.
Threatens: Increase net sales by 3.7% to 4.2% in fiscal 2026
Shoppers making tough choices may hinder sales growth.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On March 20, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Dollar General Corporation (the “Company”) approved the hiring of Jerry W. “JJ” Fleeman, Jr. to succeed Todd J. Vasos as the Company’s Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) expected to be effective as of January 1, 2027 (the “Transition Date”). The Board intends to appoint Mr. Fleeman as a member…
above is incorporated herein by reference. The news release also: · sets forth statements regarding, among other things, the Company’s fiscal year 2026 outlook and long-term financial framework, as well as the Company’s planned conference call to discuss the reported financial results, the Company’s fiscal year 2026 outlook and long-term financial framework, and certain other matters; and · announces that on March 11, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend o…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On January 28, 2026, Warren F. Bryant informed Dollar General Corporation (the “Company”) that he will retire from the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) effective upon the expiration of his current term at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of shareholders. Mr. Bryant’s decision is not the result of any disagreement with the Company.
above is incorporated herein by reference. The news release also: · sets forth statements regarding, among other things, the Company’s outlook, as well as the Company’s planned conference call to discuss the reported financial results, the Company’s outlook, and certain other matters; and · announces that on December 2, 2025, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.59 per share on the Company’s outstanding common stock payable on or before January 20, 2026, t…